Portland metro single-family market—Q3 2025 in under 60 seconds:
CODA
Are you an agent in Portland and wonder why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraiser methodology?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
Oregon’s 2026 rent cap is set at 9.5%. See the key details and implications of this policy for Portland metro rental valuations, property owners, and investment strategies.
The Oregon Department of Administrative Services (DAS) has released the official rent stabilization percentages for 2026, offering clarity for landlords, tenants, and housing professionals statewide. As a certified residential appraiser serving the Portland metro area, I track these updates closely because they influence rental market dynamics, which in turn affect property valuations for homeowners, lenders, realtors, estate planners, and attorneys.
This annual adjustment, governed by ORS 90.323 (maximum rent increase) and ORS 90.324 (calculation and publication), ensures rent increases align with inflation while offering predictability in a volatile housing market. Published on September 30, 2025, the announcement ties directly to the state’s rent control measures enacted to protect tenants from excessive hikes.
For most residential tenancies in the Portland region, the maximum allowable rent increase will be 9.5% starting January 1, 2026. This figure represents the lesser of 10% or 7% plus the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI‑U) for the West Region, All Items, based on data from the previous 12 months. The calculation reflects a measured response to rising living costs, down slightly from the 10.0% cap in 2025.
Understanding the nuances of this cap is essential for anyone involved in residential leasing or valuation in Oregon. The 9.5% limit applies broadly to tenancies under ORS 90.323, which covers most single‑family homes, apartments, and multifamily units in the region. Landlords must provide at least 90 days’ written notice for any increase up to this threshold, and the cap applies per 12-month period and increases may only be given once in any 12-month period.
Exemptions and special cases:
These provisions help maintain stability in the Portland metro area’s rental landscape, where median asking rents have hovered near $1,987 for a two‑bedroom unit according to RentCafe’s Portland rental market report (Nov 2025). Zillow places the overall average asking rent across unit types at $1,772 (Zillow Portland Rental Market; snapshot date 11/28/2025). Neighborhood‑level data shows two‑bedroom rents ranging from $1,800 to $2,400, underscoring the variability across the metro.
For appraisers, knowing the precise rent cap helps model the timeline required to bring a property or multifamily project back to market rents, especially when current leases are below prevailing rates. This allows for more accurate income projections.
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Question: Do you think the annual cap will ever drop significantly, or will persistent inflation keep the annual increase at about 10%?
CODA
Are you an agent in Portland and wonder why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about multifamily income properties, GRMs, or income calculations?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
FHFA Q3 2025 HPI: U.S. +2.2% YoY, Oregon +0.31%, Portland MSA +1.51% — appraisal insights and practical implications for Portland appraisers and lenders.
On November 25th, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its Q3 2025 House Price Index (HPI). Nationally, home prices rose 0.2% quarter‑over‑quarter, and 2.2% year‑over‑year, reflecting a cooling but still positive trajectory across most regions.
Oregon posted +0.31% annual appreciation, ranking 45th nationally, with a –0.16% quarterly decline. These subdued figures mirror the broader West Coast trend: Washington registered +1.37% YoY, while California slipped –0.62% YoY. Oregon’s modest growth reflects a market in balance—neither surging nor contracting sharply.
In the “Purchase-only” FHFA index, the seven‑county Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA outperformed the statewide average slightly, recording +0.16% quarterly growth and +1.51% annual appreciation (” Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal” category). This MSA includes:
The inclusion of Clark County (Vancouver metro) is significant. Its size and activity often moderate or amplify Oregon‑centric trends, making the FHFA MSA lens broader than the Oregon‑only focus used in our local reporting.
In the “All-transactions” FHFA index, the values are similar but slightly different, recording -0.36% quarterly decline and +1.91% annual appreciation. This places the Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA 167th among all reporting MSAs.
In our Q3 2025 Portland region market update (covering Columbia, Clackamas, Hood River, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill), we noted:
The FHFA’s +1.51% YoY for the seven‑county MSA aligns directionally with this stability but reflects slightly stronger performance due to Clark County’s contribution. When Clark and Skamania are excluded, the Oregon counties track closely with our reported flat medians and lengthening market times.
The FHFA HPI is not just another dataset—it’s one of the most authoritative measures of U.S. housing trends. Here’s how it works:
This methodology ensures consistency and reliability, but it also means the index can lag in capturing brand‑new construction markets.
Appraisers play a critical role in the FHFA dataset. Every time a refinance transaction includes an appraisal, that value becomes part of the HPI’s foundation. In other words:
Without appraisers, the FHFA’s “all‑transactions” index would be incomplete. Their work provides the bridge between raw market activity and standardized national reporting.
Residential Valuations (1–4 Units):
Cross‑Border and Portfolio Work:
Homeowners, lenders, realtors, estate planners, and attorneys benefit from seeing both perspectives:
Together, they provide a fuller picture of market stability and cross‑border dynamics in the Portland metro.
What is the FHFA House Price Index (HPI)?
The FHFA HPI is a repeat‑sales index that measures changes in single‑family home values using data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages. It tracks the same property across multiple transactions to calculate price changes over time.
Does the HPI measure home prices directly?
No. The HPI does not report the median or average home price in dollars. Instead, it measures the percentage change in value between two transactions of the same property.
How does the repeat‑sales methodology work?
What about new construction?
What are the implications of this approach?
Do refinances count in the FHFA HPI?
Yes. When a refinance includes an appraisal, the appraised value is used as the second transaction point. Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) are not used. This makes appraisers’ work central to the dataset.
Which counties are included in the Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA?
The FHFA defines the Portland MSA as seven counties:
This differs from our six‑county Oregon‑only focus, which includes Hood River but excludes Clark and Skamania.
How does FHFA data differ from RMLS or local MLS data?
FHFA data is based on conforming conventional mortgage transactions purchased or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It provides a broad index of price changes, useful for regional benchmarking.
By contrast, RMLS (and other local MLS systems) reflect all listing and sales activity, regardless of financing type. This includes transactions financed with FHA, VA, jumbo loans, private financing, and even cash sales. RMLS also reports granular metrics such as median prices, days on market, and sales volume.
👉 In short: FHFA offers a standardized, mortgage‑based view of price movement, while RMLS captures the full spectrum of market activity, making it indispensable for appraisers and analysts who need transaction‑level detail.
For current market context on inventory and pricing trends in the Portland region, see our Q3 2025 Market Update.
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Question: Do you think Q4 2025 will be flat in Oregon, or will see some significant price movement?
CODA
Are you an agent in Portland and wonder why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraisal contingencies, comp selection, or reconsiderations of value?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
Oregon and eight other states filed a proposed $7M settlement with Greystar, affecting ~19,000 Portland apartments. Appraisers and buyers are watching for 2026 rent softening and cap rate shifts.
A coalition of nine states led by Oregon and California has filed a proposed $7 million settlement with Greystar Management Services — the nation’s largest rental housing operator — over allegations that Greystar used RealPage software to illegally coordinate rent pricing across competing properties.
The settlement, if approved by a federal court, would permanently bar Greystar from sharing non-public rent and occupancy data with competitors and from using RealPage’s hyper-local pricing recommendations. A separate DOJ consent decree filed against RealPage itself imposes similar behavioral restrictions and a three-year independent monitor.
Greystar manages approximately 19,000 apartment units in the Portland metro area — roughly 10 % of the region’s multifamily inventory. State investigators have estimated that RealPage-enabled pricing affected roughly one in five multifamily units statewide.
For homeowners, buyers, agents, and lenders, the most immediate question is whether these enforcement actions will translate into meaningful rent relief in 2026 and beyond.
A renter currently paying a $200 “algorithm premium” (the difference between market rent and coordinated rent loses $2,400 annually that could otherwise go toward a down payment.
Even a modest 5–8 % softening in rents after these settlements would return $110–$176 per month to the typical household, equating to $4,000–$10,600 in additional savings over three to five years.
If rents soften and risk premiums rise, cap rates will widen first on larger assets. That pressure eventually flows through to gross rent multipliers (GRMs) on 1–4 unit residential income properties — either compressing GRMs if sale prices adjust faster than rents, or temporarily expanding them if prices lag.
We likely won’t see clear signals until mid-2026, but the direction of travel will matter for every appraisal involving the income approach in the region.
Combined with new multifamily supply now entering the pipeline, these twin enforcement actions represent the strongest downward pressure on algorithmic rent growth Portland has seen since the pandemic began.
For broader quarterly context on inventory, pricing, and market segmentation trends in the Portland region, see our most recent Q3 2025 Market Update.
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Question: Do you think we’ll see any meaningful slowdown in rent increases in the Portland area?
CODA
Are you an agent in Portland and wonder why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraisal contingencies, GRMs, or valuation delays?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
NAR October 2025 RCI: First-time buyers at 32%, DOM at 34 days, and 19% waived appraisals in Portland metro. Insights for realtors and homeowners on comp stability and market shifts.
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has released its October 2025 REALTORS® Confidence Index (RCI), revealing a market with subtle shifts that Portland metro real estate professionals should monitor closely. First-time buyers climbed to 32% of transactions, supported by growing inventory and modestly lower rates, though overall confidence dipped—with only 17% of REALTORS® expecting year-over-year buyer traffic increases in the next three months, and 16% for sellers. Cash sales remained steady at 29%, while homes received an average of 2.1 offers, and 19% sold above list price.
For appraisers in the Portland area, these trends suggest more stable comparable sales (comps), but they also highlight persistent risks from contingencies, with 19% of buyers waiving appraisals and 6% of delayed settlements linked to valuation issues. This creates opportunities for thorough, defensible reports that address local market segmentation.
The RCI: A National Pulse with Local Relevance
The RCI draws from a survey of approximately 1,800 REALTORS® conducted November 1–16, 2025, focusing on buyer and seller activity, financing, contingencies, and sentiment. Unlike local MLS data such as RMLS, which tracks completed transactions, the RCI captures forward-looking expectations. In the Portland metro, including Vancouver, WA, combining these insights ensures appraisals reflect both anticipated trends and on-the-ground realities, particularly in cross-border markets.
Key Market Indicators Shaping Appraisals
October’s data points to a gradual easing:
While days on market are up year over year, the time homes are spending on market is not excessive. There is a bit more time for negotiations. I go into detail about rising days on market in my Portland Region Q3 2025 Market Update.
Buyer Shifts and Contingency Considerations
Buyers are navigating a slightly less competitive landscape, which influences appraisal timelines and risks:
In Multnomah County and Vancouver, WA, this suburban preference reshapes comp pools, emphasizing the need for carefully defined competitive areas—location matters!
Seller Dynamics: Fewer Offers, More Scrutiny
Sellers are adjusting to softer demand, with implications for pricing and close processes:
For realtors and lenders in the Portland metro, rising terminations underscore the importance of appraisals backed by solid, verifiable comps. As I detailed in my Portland Region Q3 2025 Market Update, the sales price to original list price ratio has been declining.
Outlook: Tempered Optimism and Suburban Focus
REALTOR® confidence softened amid these changes:
This aligns with the Portland Region’s ongoing suburban migration, impacting comp selection in Clackamas and Washington Counties. Homeowners and attorneys preparing for transactions should carefully read reports to verify they incorporate these broader sentiment shifts.
Implications for Portland Metro Valuations
The RCI’s blend of buyer gains and fading enthusiasm points to a transitional market: enhanced first-time activity promotes equitable pricing, but elevated terminations (7%) reveal gaps in expectations. For further details, explore the full report here, the main RCI page, or the existing-home sales tie-in. See also my Portland Region Q3 2025 Market Update.
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Question: Do you think lower mortgage rates will propel the market to new heights?
CODA
Are you an agent in Portland or Clackamas County and wonder why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner in Lake Oswego with questions about appraisal contingencies or valuation delays?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or Clackamas County, we’d be glad to assist.
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