At today’s 6.58% mortgage rate, the monthly principal‑and‑interest payment on a Q1 2026 Portland Region median‑priced detached home ($580,000) with 20% down is $2,957, up from $2,776 at February’s low. Lifetime interest rises to $600,610, and repricing all Q1 loans at today’s rate adds $194M in regional interest.
What Happened This Week
Mortgage rates moved higher this week, with the 30‑year fixed rising to 6.58%—a 3 bps increase from last week and now marking the second consecutive year‑to‑date high. The table below shows where today’s rate sits within the 2026 range, including the February low, last week’s reading, and this week’s new peak.
Time Frame
Date
Rate
Rate Delta
YTD Low
Feb 26, 2026
5.98%
-0.60%
Last Week
July 16, 2026
6.55%
-0.03%
Current Week (YTD High)
July 23, 2026
6.58%
—
Mortgage rate context showing the year‑to‑date low, last week’s rate, and the current week’s rate. Rate Delta reflects the change relative to the current week. January 1, 2026 – July 23, 2026 Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
The broader 2026 pattern remains intact: rates bottomed in late February, climbed sharply through early April, cooled briefly, and then resumed their upward drift beginning April 23. This week’s move pushes us decisively into the upper end of the range, with the past eight weeks defined by a tight, high‑pressure band of rate movement that has now broken higher for the second week in a row.
Affordability remains strained at these levels. Even small increases carry weight when rates are this elevated, and the week‑to‑week movement—from 6.55% last week to 6.58% today—continues to push monthly payments toward their most challenging point of the year. For buyers operating near qualification limits, these incremental shifts compound quickly and can meaningfully affect which housing types remain viable.
As the charts below show, today’s rate is pressing against the upper edge of the 2026 range, and the Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI) continues to reflect the compounding affordability pressure across the Portland Region.
The long‑run chart shows how today’s rate fits into a 25‑year history of mortgage cycles. The early 2000s sat in the 6–8% range, the post‑Great Recession era brought a decade of unusually low rates, and the pandemic period pushed borrowing costs to historic lows. Years after leaving that ultra‑low‑rate environment, the market continues to adjust to more difficult financing constraints, and today’s 6.58% reflects that ongoing shift. With this week’s increase, rates remain elevated in a long‑term context, and affordability continues to be shaped by the same structural pressures highlighted in the medium‑run and short‑run views.
Medium‑Run View (Since COVID)
The COVID‑era chart highlights the dramatic rate compression of 2020–2021, the rapid surge of 2022, and the choppy plateau that has defined the past two years. Rates have been oscillating between roughly 6% and 7% since mid‑2023, and today’s 6.58% sits near the upper portion of that band. Volatility has cooled compared to 2022, but the medium‑run trend remains one of elevated and persistent borrowing costs, with the market continuing to adjust to structurally higher financing conditions across the Portland Region.
Short‑Run View (2026 YTD)
The year‑to‑date chart shows the full shape of the 2026 cycle: a clear bottom at 5.98% on February 26, a sharp rise into early April, a brief cooldown, and a renewed climb that pushed rates to 6.53% in late May—the highest level of the year at that time. Since then, rates have continued to firm, and this week’s reading of 6.58% establishes a new year‑to‑date high for the second week in a row. Affordability is at its weakest point of 2026, and the short‑run pattern is the most relevant for buyers today, as it directly shapes monthly payments and qualifying power across the Portland Region.
Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI)
What PABAI Measures
The Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI) is a model that estimates how home sale prices compare to what a median‑income household can qualify for under standard lending assumptions (HUD Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA median income, 20% down, and a 28% DTI for principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues).
Unlike national affordability indices, PABAI is built from actual RMLS transactions rather than a single hypothetical price point. It computes an affordability ratio for every closed sale in the Portland Region during the analysis period using rates matched to the date of close, reported taxes, reported HOA dues, and an insurance estimate based on a percentage of the home’s value. The individual affordability ratios are then averaged to produce the reported PABAI value for that period. For Q1 2026, this approach captures the actual mix of homes sold and the financing conditions present at the time those transactions occurred. Each housing segment—detached, attached, condos, and manufactured—is calculated separately, ensuring that segment‑specific dynamics are preserved rather than blended together. This approach provides a more detailed, locally grounded view of Portland‑area affordability and avoids the distortions that occur when fundamentally different housing types are combined into a single regional metric.
A PABAI of 100 means the market is exactly affordable at that income level (the Q1 2026 HUD median MSA income was $124,100 for a family of four). Values above 100 indicate excess qualifying capacity (more affordable), while values below 100 indicate a shortfall (strained affordability). Full methodology and the interpretation scale are available on the PABAI explainer page.
PABAI Range
Interpretation
120+
Strongly Affordable
100–119
Moderately Affordable
80–99
Strained
Below 80
Severely Constrained
Q1 2026: Actual vs. Constant‑Rate Affordability
The Q1 chart compares two versions of PABAI: one using actual weekly mortgage rates, and one using today’s rate (6.58%) as a constant. Because the constant‑rate line uses a rate at the very top of the 2026 range, it naturally sits below the actual‑rate line for every week of the quarter. That part isn’t the story.
The key insight is the size and behavior of the gap between the two lines. Early in the quarter, actual rates were meaningfully lower than today’s rate, giving buyers more qualifying power than a flat‑rate environment would suggest. This is why the actual‑rate PABAI values sit several points higher in January and February. But as rates climbed through March—and continued rising into April—the two lines began to converge. This narrowing gap is a visual confirmation of how persistent rate increases eroded affordability heading into spring.
With today’s 6.58% rate, the constant‑rate line now sits extremely close to the actual‑rate line at the end of Q1. This alignment reflects the tightening affordability conditions that carried into mid‑ and late‑spring and ultimately set the stage for the strained environment buyers are experiencing today.
Structural Unaffordability and the Seasonal Pattern
Detached homes in the Portland Region remain structurally unaffordable to a household earning the HUD median MSA income. PABAI has been below 100 for years, and Q1 2026 continues that pattern. What the chart makes clear is that winter remains the best window for buyers on tight qualifying budgets: affordability improves when rates soften and seasonal pricing cools. As spring approaches, both rates and prices firm up, and affordability reliably compresses.
With the 30‑year fixed now sitting at a new year‑to‑date high of 6.58%, the convergence of the two PABAI lines at the end of the quarter reflects the same reality: rising rates have pushed qualifying costs to their weakest point of the year, and the early‑year affordability advantage has largely evaporated. Today’s reading keeps affordability firmly in the strained range, underscoring how sensitive the market remains to even small rate movements.
Affordability Snapshot (This Week)
Maximum Sustainable Payment (Median Income)
Understanding affordability begins with a simple anchor: how much housing payment a median‑income household in the Portland Region can sustainably carry. Using the Q1 2026 HUD median MSA income and applying a standard front‑end debt-to-income ratio, we can calculate the maximum monthly payment that fits within traditional affordability guidelines. This number does not change with mortgage rates—it is tied purely to income and serves as the baseline against which all market payments are measured.
Affordability Metric
Value
Median MSA Income (Q1 2026)
$124,100
Qualifying Ratio (Front‑End)
28%
Max Sustainable Payment
$2,895.67
This ceiling is also the reason PABAI incorporates all components of monthly housing cost rather than focusing solely on principal and interest. As mortgage rates rise, interest consumes a larger share of the allowable payment “space,” leaving less room for taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and mortgage insurance. When these components collectively exceed the sustainable threshold, the buyer must either reduce the loan amount or shift to a lower‑priced segment of the market.
In practical terms, higher rates compress the principal that can be repaid within the same affordability boundary—which is why rising rates translate directly into fewer accessible homes and tighter qualifying margins.
Q1 2026 Affordability Recomputed at Today’s Rate
The table below shows how Q1 2026 affordability metrics change when all 3,349 detached sales are recalculated at this week’s 6.58% rate. This is the clearest way to see how rising rates reshape qualifying power, housing burden, and the share of homes accessible to a median‑income household.
Because today’s rate sits at the highest level of 2026, the recomputed metrics show a pronounced deterioration in affordability relative to the actual Q1 environment. Required income rises, housing burden increases, and the number of homes affordable to a median‑income household falls sharply—a direct reflection of how elevated rates compound qualifying pressure. Even small rate movements at these levels materially shift the boundary between what is affordable and what is out of reach.
Taken together, these metrics show how quickly affordability erodes when rates rise into the upper‑6% range. The drop in Average PABAI from 85.45 to 82.05 may look modest at first glance, but it represents a meaningful tightening of qualifying power across the entire detached market. Required income rises to roughly $151,000, widening the gap between what a median‑income household earns and what the market demands. That shortfall now reaches 21.87%, a reminder that the typical Portland household remains well outside traditional affordability thresholds.
The payment side tells the same story. Recomputing Q1 sales at today’s 6.58% rate pushes the average monthly mortgage obligation up by about $161, which may seem incremental on a monthly basis but compounds sharply over a 30‑year horizon. More importantly, the higher rate pushes the average front‑end DTI from 38.03% to 39.58%, a level that would be considered stretched even in more forgiving underwriting environments. These shifts are not abstract; they directly shape who can buy, what they can buy, and how competitive they can be.
The Buyer‑Side Impact
The most visible consequence of these changes is the shrinking pool of homes accessible to a median‑income household. Under actual Q1 2026 rates, 967 detached homes were affordable; at today’s 6.58% rate, that number falls to 809. In percentage terms, the share of the market within reach drops from 28.87% to 24.16%—a loss of nearly five percentage points in a single recalculation. This is the practical expression of rising rates: fewer viable options, tighter qualifying margins, and a market that becomes increasingly selective about who can participate.
For buyers, the experience varies by circumstance but the direction is the same. Households with limited flexibility feel the tightening most acutely, as even small rate movements can eliminate entire segments of the market. Move‑up buyers face a widening payment gap between their current home and the next one, making the trade‑up calculus more difficult unless equity is substantial. Cash buyers, by contrast, gain relative leverage as financed demand thins—though that advantage is uneven across price tiers.
Across all buyer types, the message is consistent: rising rates are reshaping the market in real time, and the affordability landscape at a 6.58% mortgage rate is meaningfully different from the one buyers faced just a few months ago. The shift is incremental week to week, but cumulative in effect—a defining feature of today’s strained affordability environment.
The Seller‑Side Impact
Rising rates don’t just reshape the buyer experience—they influence seller outcomes as well. In the Q1 2026 detached market, cumulative days on market (CDOM) increased 11.27%, and the current rate environment suggests that upward pressure on market times may persist. As affordability tightens and the pool of qualified buyers shrinks, homes that would have moved quickly in a lower‑rate environment may begin to sit longer, particularly in segments where pricing is already stretched.
Today’s 6.58% rate keeps financing conditions at the most challenging levels of 2026, reinforcing the same dynamic: fewer qualified buyers, more selective demand, and a market where pricing precision matters. This doesn’t imply an abrupt market slowdown, but it does mean sellers should expect a more deliberate buyer pool and prepare for longer market times—especially in higher‑priced tiers where rate sensitivity is most acute.
TIP: Total Interest Paid — Why Small Rate Moves Matter
Total Interest Paid (TIP) is one of the clearest ways to understand how mortgage rates shape long‑run affordability. While buyers shop based on monthly payment, the lifetime cost of borrowing moves far more dramatically than the payment itself. Even small rate changes can add—or remove—tens of thousands of dollars in interest over the life of a loan.
At today’s 6.58% rate, the lifetime interest on a standard Portland‑area purchase sits far above the levels buyers saw during the pandemic and meaningfully higher than the early‑year lows of 2026. The difference between a 5.98% environment and a 6.58% environment may feel subtle on a monthly basis, but over 30 years it compounds into a substantial increase in total repayment—the kind of shift that materially affects long‑run household finances in the Portland Region.
This is why TIP matters: it captures the hidden cost of rising rates. Buyers feel the payment, but the long‑run financial burden is embedded in the interest curve. As the charts below show, the 2026 rate path has pushed TIP to the highest levels of the year, even as the monthly payment has moved more gradually. The cumulative effect is what reshapes affordability—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing TIP across different rate scenarios.
2026 YTD Total Interest Paid
Note: The y-axis starts at $500,000 to allow better examination of monthly differences.
The 2026 YTD TIP chart shows how sharply lifetime borrowing costs have moved as rates climbed through the first half of the year. These calculations are based on the total interest a buyer would pay on the Q1 2026 Portland median‑priced home of$580,000, assuming a 20% down payment and applying the rate effective in each week. This isolates the impact of rate movements alone, holding price and loan structure constant.
The low point came on February 26, when a 5.98% mortgage rate produced a total interest burden of $535,342—the most affordable point of the year. As rates rose through March and into late May, TIP increased steadily, reaching $595,104 at the 6.53% rate on May 28. That’s nearly a $60,000 increase in lifetime interest in just three months, driven entirely by rate movement.
Since then, rates have continued to climb, and this week’s 6.58% reading pushes TIP to a new year‑to‑date high: $600,610 in total interest. This marks a clear break above the late‑May peak and reflects how even small weekly rate increases compound into large long‑run cost differences. The shape of the chart makes the pattern unmistakable—at today’s price levels, rising rates translate directly into higher lifetime borrowing costs, and the cumulative effect becomes especially visible when comparing TIP across different rate environments.
TIP per $1 Borrowed
The TIP‑per‑$1 chart shows how much interest a buyer pays for every dollar borrowed at different mortgage rates—a clean way to visualize the rate sensitivity of long‑run borrowing costs. At the year‑to‑date low of 5.98%, each dollar borrowed generated about $1.1538 in interest over the life of the loan. As rates climbed through the spring, that figure rose steadily, reaching $1.2826 at the late‑May peak of 6.53%.
With today’s 6.58% rate, the cost now sits at $1.2944 per $1 borrowed, the highest level of 2026 so far. The line makes the pattern unmistakable: once rates move into the mid‑6% range, each additional uptick adds meaningfully more lifetime interest—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing rate environments side by side.
Regional Interest Delta (RID)
The Regional Interest Delta (RID) models how much total lifetime interest the Portland Region’s Q1 detached‑home buyers would collectively pay when mortgage rates shift. To keep the metric consistent, RID assumes that all 3,349 Q1 detached sales were financed under standard 20%‑down, 30‑year conventional underwriting, even though the actual dataset includes cash purchases and loans under FHA, VA, jumbo, and other programs. Rates are matched to each home’s close date to reflect the real timing of rate movements, but individual buyers may have locked slightly different rates depending on their specific loan terms. This approach provides a clean, apples‑to‑apples way to measure how rate changes affect the region’s total interest burden.
Scenario
Rate
Total Lifetime Interest
RID
Actual Q1 2026 Pipeline
Actual rate matched to close date
$2,091,901,976
—
Modeled at Today’s Rate
6.58%
$2,286,097,066
+$194,195,090
The Regional Interest Delta (RID) is a modeled estimate assuming all Q1 2026 detached sales were financed under standard 20%-down, 30-year conventional terms. Actual loan terms may vary. Single-family Detached | Q1 2026 Data: RMLS (3,349 observations) | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Using those actual matched rates, the region’s Q1 2026 pipeline will generate $2,091,901,976 in lifetime interest. Recomputing the same loans at today’s 6.58% rate increases the total to $2,286,097,066. The difference—the RID—is $194,195,090 in additional lifetime interest.
To put that number in perspective: $194 million is roughly equivalent to the full development cost of a large‑scale affordable‑housing project in the Portland Region—something on the scale of hollywoodHUB or larger. A single rate shift—applied across one quarter’s mortgage activity—creates a lifetime interest delta comparable to building an entire affordable‑housing development from the ground up. Today’s RID exceeds that benchmark by over $40 million, underscoring how dramatically elevated rates scale when applied across thousands of loans.
RID makes the scale of rate changes unmistakable. What looks like a modest shift at the household level becomes a region‑wide financial impact when applied across thousands of loans—a reminder of how sensitive the Portland market remains to even small movements in the 30‑year fixed.
Payment Delta
The Payment Delta shows how monthly affordability shifts as mortgage rates move. Using the Q1 2026 Portland median‑priced home of $580,000 with a 20% down payment, the monthly principal‑and‑interest payment changes meaningfully even with small rate movements.
Date
Rate
Monthly P&I
Pmt Delta
Feb 26, 2026
5.98%
$2,775.95
—
July 16, 2026
6.55%
$2,948.07
$172.12
July 23, 2026
6.58%
$2,957.25
$181.30
Payment Delta reflects the change from the year‑to‑date low on February 26. Monthly payment for home using median Q1 2026 price ($580,000) and 20% down. Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Monthly payments remain meaningfully higher than the February low and now sit above the region’s maximum sustainable payment of $2,895.67. At the year‑to‑date low on February 26 at 5.98%, the monthly principal‑and‑interest payment was $2,775.95, comfortably below the affordability ceiling. As rates climbed into mid‑July, the payment rose to $2,948.07 at 6.55%, pushing it past that threshold. Today’s 6.58% rate moves the payment to $2,957.25, now $181.30 above the February low and $61.58 above the maximum sustainable payment. This figure reflects principal and interest only; including taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and mortgage insurance (if present) pushes the delta even higher—clear evidence of how quickly rising rates can push buyers beyond traditional affordability guidelines.
Even small week‑to‑week movements create noticeable shifts. The increase from last week’s 6.55% to today’s 6.58% adds another $9.18 to the monthly payment. While that may seem incremental, buyers operating near qualification limits feel these changes immediately, especially when combined with rising taxes, insurance, or HOA dues.
While the Payment Delta is smaller in scale than the lifetime interest changes shown in TIP and RID, it is the number buyers feel most directly. For households shopping at the lower end of the market, a $150–$180 increase can meaningfully affect qualifying ratios, required down payment, or even which housing types remain viable. These shifts often push buyers from detached homes into attached homes or condos, or require sellers to offer concessions or rate buydowns to keep deals together.
Payment Delta remains one of the clearest week‑to‑week indicators of how rate movements translate directly into buyer experience—small changes in rates can quickly reshape what is affordable, especially for affordability‑sensitive buyers.
Purchasing Power
The table below shows how purchasing power has changed since the year‑to‑date low, based on a range of monthly P&I budgets. At February’s 5.98% rate, buyers could finance meaningfully more than they can at today’s 6.58% rate.
Target Monthly P&I Budget
Purchasing Power at YTD Low Rate (5.98%)
Purchasing Power at Today’s Rate (6.58%)
Change in YTD Low Purchasing Power
$2,000
$417,875
$392,256
-$25,619
$2,500
$522,344
$490,320
-$32,023
$3,000
$626,812
$588,384
-$38,428
$3,500
$731,281
$686,449
-$44,832
$4,000
$835,750
$784,513
-$51,237
$4,500
$940,218
$882,577
-$57,642
$5,000
$1,044,687
$980,641
-$64,046
$5,500
$1,149,156
$1,078,705
-$70,451
$6,000
$1,253,624
$1,176,769
-$76,856
Purchasing power comparison assumes 20% down and reflects principal and interest (P&I) only. Calculations use the YTD low rate (5.98%) and today’s rate (6.58%) across common monthly P&I budgets. Actual purchasing power is lower once taxes, insurance, and HOA dues are included. Rates are based on the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Purchasing power has fallen by $25,619 to $76,856 since the year‑to‑date low, depending on the monthly budget. For most buyers in the Portland Region—especially those shopping near the Q1 2026 median price of $580,000—the relevant range is typically $2,500 to $3,000 in monthly P&I. In that bracket, purchasing power has dropped by $32,023 to $38,428, a decline of 6.13%. That is a meaningful shift for buyers operating near their maximum qualification limits, particularly now that monthly payments sit above the region’s maximum sustainable threshold.
It’s also important to note that this table reflects principal and interest only. Actual purchasing power is lower once property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and other housing costs are included. These additional expenses often push buyers out of certain price brackets even when the P&I budget appears workable—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing detached homes, attached homes, and condos.
For sellers, a $30,000–$40,000 reduction in purchasing power at common buyer budgets can materially affect demand. When buyers are stretched, sellers may need to offer concessions or rate buydowns to keep deals together. At today’s rate levels, even modest increases can reshape what buyers can finance, and the cumulative decline from the YTD low remains one of the clearest indicators of affordability pressure in 2026.
Payment Milestones
The table below shows the key payoff milestones for a loan originated this month, with the first payment due on the first of next month. Each milestone reflects how much of the loan has been repaid and how much interest has accrued by that point at today’s 6.58% rate.
Milestone
% of Loan Paid
Calendar Date
Interest Paid to Date
Early Equity
10%
Dec-2033
$213,690
Quarter Paid
25%
Nov-2040
$389,143
Half Paid
50%
Feb-2048
$529,537
Three-Quarters
75%
Dec-2052
$585,824
Payment milestone assumptions: Schedule assumes a loan originated in July 2026 with the first payment due August 1, 2026. Amortization is based on the Q1 2026 median price ($580,000) with 20% down, using the current 6.58% rate from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
These milestones highlight how interest‑heavy the early and middle years of the amortization schedule remain at today’s 6.58% rate. Early equity arrives in December 2033, roughly seven years into repayment, after $213,690 in interest has already been paid. The halfway point does not arrive until February 2048, by which time cumulative interest reaches $529,537. Even at the 75% milestone in December 2052, interest continues to dominate the totals, with $585,824 paid before the loan is three‑quarters repaid.
Milestones like these help illustrate why small rate changes matter: higher rates push each payoff marker further into the future and increase the amount of interest paid before meaningful principal reduction occurs. At today’s rate, principal reduction accelerates only in the later years of the amortization schedule, reinforcing how front‑loaded interest remains throughout the loan’s life. This is the long‑run counterpart to Payment Delta and TIP—the structural impact of rate movement becomes clearest when viewed across decades rather than months.
Closing Thoughts
The story of this week is straightforward: mortgage rates remain elevated, and the effects are visible across every major affordability metric. The PABAI continues to signal structural strain for median‑income households, and the recalculated Q1 data shows how even modest rate movements reshape qualifying power, monthly payments, and the share of homes within reach. The TIP and RID visuals make the pattern clear: higher rates don’t just affect individual buyers—they reshape the long‑run financial burden carried across the entire region.
For buyers, the takeaway is that financing conditions remain tight as we move deeper into early summer. Winter continues to offer the best affordability window, but today’s 6.58% rate means households on the margin feel pressure sooner and more sharply than in prior years. The Purchasing Power table shows how much buying capacity has eroded since the YTD low, with common buyer budgets losing $32,023–$38,428 of reach. Combined with a Payment Delta that now sits $181.30 above February’s low—and above the region’s maximum sustainable payment—buyers face tighter qualifying ratios and fewer viable options. Even the Payment Milestones reinforce the same theme: at mid‑6% rates, interest dominates the early and middle years of repayment, delaying meaningful principal reduction.
For sellers, the implications are more subtle but no less real. The Q1 2026 detached market saw CDOM rise more than 11%, and the current rate backdrop suggests that upward pressure on market times may persist. A smaller pool of qualified buyers, reduced purchasing power, and higher monthly payments can translate into longer exposure—especially for homes priced aggressively or positioned in segments where affordability is already stretched. Pricing discipline, strategic concessions, and realistic expectations matter more in this environment than they did during the ultra‑low‑rate era.
As always, the Portland market adapts—sometimes quickly, sometimes reluctantly—but the direction of travel is clear. Higher rates are reshaping both sides of the transaction, and the early summer of 2026 is operating under some of the most constrained financing conditions we’ve seen this year.
Sources & Further Reading
All data presented in this weekly mortgage rate update is based on the Q1 2026 detached homes segment. The data is sourced directly from RMLS and has been subjected to rigorous cleaning and validation processes to ensure reliability for detached single-family residential analysis in the six-county Portland Region. The trends, comparisons, and commentary are the result of original appraisal expertise and independent analysis—not aggregated from secondary sources or news summaries.
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®): Dataset
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Are you an agent in Portland who wonders why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraiser methodology?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
Q1 2026 manufactured‑home sales rose to 60 regionwide (+11), with activity across 33 cities and every Oregon county in the Portland Region. Lots under 0.50 acres made up 38% of sales, while two 100+‑acre closings pushed the regional average lot size to nearly 8 acres.
The Portland White Stag Sign Photographer: Jimmy Woo Via Unsplash.com
Introduction
Manufactured‑home activity across the region showed a steady and broadly distributed performance in Q1 2026. The segment continued to span both rural acreage and metro‑area communities, reflecting its long‑standing role as one of the most geographically diverse housing types in the region. Sales appeared in every county, with contributions from dozens of cities, reinforcing the segment’s reach across a wide range of neighborhoods, lot sizes, and property types.
This quarter also highlighted the dual nature of manufactured‑home inventory. Smaller urban and suburban parcels formed the core of the market, while a handful of large rural properties shaped the upper end of pricing and acreage variation. The mix of these two profiles—compact metro lots and expansive rural acreage—remains one of the defining characteristics of the segment and continues to influence how manufactured homes behave in scatter plots, averages, medians, and quarterly comparisons.
Overall, Q1 2026 offered a clear view of a stable and widely distributed manufactured‑home market, with patterns that align closely with long‑term regional trends. The sections that follow explore these dynamics in more detail, including county‑level activity, city contributions, acreage distribution, and the visual patterns that emerge when price, square footage, and land size are viewed together.
The Portland Region in this update comprises the six Oregon counties of Columbia, Clackamas, Hood River, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill. These counties form a contiguous housing ecosystem centered on Portland—Multnomah as the core home county, with the others tightly integrated through commuting patterns, economic ties, and shared market dynamics (e.g., Yamhill’s strong connection via Highway 99W and wine-country adjacency). Beyond Yamhill, the MLS system changes, further distinguishing this six-county area from broader geographic aggregations. For a detailed overview—including county profiles, population data, key value influencers, and why this definition differs from the official seven-county Portland–Vancouver–Hillsboro MSA—see the dedicated page: The Portland Region – Six-County Market Area Overview.
All data is sourced from RMLS and reflects open-market manufactured residential sales (excluding condominiums, attached homes, and site-built detached homes). SNL (“Sold Not Listed”) entries—off-market transactions entered retroactively—have been excluded to preserve consistency with true market activity.
All figures have undergone a rigorous data-cleaning process to address common RMLS accuracy challenges, including misclassifications (e.g. manufactured homes hiding in other categories such as detached), square footage/price typos, incomplete fields, status/date mismatches, and non-representative entries. For a detailed overview of these issues, their impact on market analysis, and how they are mitigated through automated flagging, cross-verification, and manual review, see the dedicated page: RMLS Data Accuracy Challenges.
It is important to note that this review focuses on manufactured homes permanently affixed to land that is also owned by the same party. This means we are excluding classic mobile-home parks where the owner of the mobile home must pay a lease/lot rental fee.
Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI)
What PABAI Measures
The Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI) is a model that estimates how home sale prices compare to what a median‑income household can qualify for under standard lending assumptions (HUD Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro MSA median income, 20% down, and a 28% DTI for principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues).
Unlike national affordability indices, PABAI is built from actual RMLS transactions rather than a single hypothetical price point. It computes an affordability ratio for every closed sale in the Portland Region during the analysis period using rates matched to the date of close, reported taxes, reported HOA dues, and an insurance estimate based on a percentage of the home’s value. The individual affordability ratios are then averaged to produce the reported PABAI value for that period.
For Q1 2026, this approach captures the actual mix of homes sold and the financing conditions present at the time those transactions occurred. Each housing segment—detached, attached, condos, and manufactured—is calculated separately, ensuring that segment‑specific dynamics are preserved rather than blended together. This provides a more detailed, locally grounded view of Portland‑area affordability and avoids the distortions that occur when fundamentally different housing types are combined into a single regional metric.
A PABAI of 100 means the market is exactly affordable at that income level (the Q1 2026 HUD median MSA income was $124,100 for a family of four). Values above 100 indicate excess qualifying capacity (more affordable), while values below 100 indicate a shortfall (strained affordability). Full methodology and the interpretation scale are available on the PABAI explainer page.
PABAI Range
Interpretation
120+
Strongly Affordable
100–119
Moderately Affordable
80–99
Strained
Below 80
Severely Constrained
Residential Housing Snapshot
Category
Detached
Attached
Condo
Manuf.
Total $ Volume
$2.2B
$161.0M
$199.0M
$32.4M
Avg Price
$659,197
$444,672
$389,438
$540,352
Avg PPSF (Total SF)
$316.21
$286.91
$325.55
$356.75
Avg Total SF
2,164
1,576
1,180
1,571
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.655
0.066
N/A
7.959
Avg Age (Yrs)
46.03
15.09
32.03
29.10
Avg CDOM
80.22
80.59
119.62
118.25
# of Sales
3,349
362
511
60
% of Market
78.21%
8.45%
11.93%
1.40%
Highest Sale
$5,725,950
$1,175,000
$2,450,000
$2,400,000
Lowest Sale
$135,000
$249,000
$100,000
$199,700
Price Spread Ratio
42.41
4.72
24.50
12.02
PPSF Spread Ratio
30.93
4.08
11.91
13.29
Total SF Spread Ratio
23.46
4.14
12.24
3.52
Acreage Spread Ratio
5,182.19
19.54
—
1,559.53
Avg PABAI
85.45
110.38
122.83
118.04
Spread Ratio: A measure of how widely a variable ranges within the segment, calculated by dividing the largest value by the smallest. Q1 2026 (4,282 total residential sales). Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
The Portland Region’s residential market continues to operate as a tightly connected ecosystem, with each segment shaping and responding to the others in predictable ways. Detached homes remain the anchor segment—by far the largest in both sales count and dollar volume—and their scale sets the outer boundaries of regional pricing, land intensity, and buyer movement. With more than 3,300 sales and over $2.2 billion in closed volume this quarter, detached homes define the structural framework of the metro’s housing activity. Their wide spread ratios across price, PPSF, and size reflect a segment that spans everything from sub‑$150,000 fixers to multi‑million‑dollar estates. Detached homes also remain the least affordable segment, with a PABAI of 85.45, underscoring the gap between median incomes and the cost of entry into the region’s preferred housing type.
Attached homes sit directly beneath detached in the regional hierarchy and serve as the clearest alternative when detached becomes harder to access. They are the youngest segment in the metro—averaging just over 15 years old—and the most uniform, with tight spread ratios that signal a highly consistent, commodity‑like product. Their average price of $444,672 and moderate affordability (PABAI 110.38) position them as the region’s primary safety‑net for buyers priced out of detached homes. Attached homes represented 8.45% of all Q1 sales but played an outsized role in absorbing affordability‑sensitive demand, particularly in areas where detached prices have climbed beyond reach.
Condos remain the most affordable segment in the region, with a PABAI of 122.83 this quarter, but affordability alone does not translate into broad appeal. They are geographically concentrated—over two‑thirds of all condo sales occurred in Multnomah County—and their average age is more than double that of attached homes. HOA dues shape both buyer preferences and long‑term affordability, creating a segment where price ceilings are lower but carrying costs vary widely. Condos make up nearly 12% of all Q1 sales yet contribute less than 8% of total dollar volume, reflecting their structural role as an accessible option for some buyers but not a proportional driver of regional market activity.
Manufactured homes represent the smallest segment by far, with only 60 sales this quarter—just 1.40% of all regional activity. Their averages run high because many transactions include significant acreage: the typical manufactured home in Q1 2026 sat on nearly eight acres, a land profile unmatched by any other segment. This land intensity is the defining feature of manufactured homes and explains why their average price ($540,352) exceeds condos and attached homes despite similar dwelling sizes. Manufactured homes share several surface‑level similarities with condos—age, CDOM, affordability—but diverge sharply in how they trade: manufactured homes trade on land, while condos trade on dues. With such a small sample size, outliers exert more influence on segment averages than in any other category, and this sensitivity is a key consideration when interpreting manufactured‑home metrics.
Across the ecosystem, three of the four segments cluster in the low–mid $300s PPSF, underscoring that structure cost is relatively consistent across the metro. It is land, size, dues, and buyer preferences that create the separation between segments. Detached homes show the widest internal variation, attached homes the tightest, condos a bimodal profile shaped by older stock and boutique new construction, and manufactured homes a land‑driven spread that reflects acreage more than dwelling characteristics. This snapshot frames the broader regional context and sets the stage for the manufactured‑home‑specific analysis that follows.
Portland Region Q1 2026 Overview
Overall Regional Trends
The table below summarizes key metrics for manufactured homes residential sales in the Portland Region (Clackamas, Columbia, Hood River, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties) for Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$21,744,192
$32,421,110
+49.10%
Average Price
$443,759
$540,352
+21.77%
Median Price
$404,000
$432,450
+7.04%
Avg SP/OLP
95.06%
91.69%
-3.37 pts
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$301.16
$356.75
+18.46%
Avg HOA Dues
$106.33
$30.60
-71.22%
Avg Total SF
1,542
1,571
+1.88%
Avg Lot Size (ac)
3.55
7.96
+124.49%
Avg Age (Yrs)
30.92
29.10
-5.88%
Avg CDOM
78.35
118.25
+50.93%
Total # of Sales
49
60
+22.45%
# of New Constr.
1
2
+100.00%
# of REOs
0
2
—
# of Short Sales
0
3
—
Average PABAI
119.49
118.04
-1.45 pts
# Affordable
30
37
+7 homes
% Affordable
61.22%
61.67%
+0.45 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (3 sales for Q1 2025 & 5 sales for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Manufactured Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Key Observations From the Aggregate Data
The Portland Region’s manufactured‑home market saw a meaningful increase in activity this quarter, with total dollar volume rising from $21.7 million in Q1 2025 to $32.4 million in Q1 2026. Sales count increased from 49 to 60, a sizable percentage gain but one that should be interpreted cautiously given the segment’s small size. Manufactured homes remain a low‑volume, land‑driven category, and even modest shifts in participation can produce large percentage changes. What stands out more than the increase in sales is the mix of properties that sold: Q1 2026 included several large‑acreage transactions that reshaped the segment’s averages and influenced many of the metrics in the regional overview table.
Average price rose sharply this quarter, increasing 21.77% year‑over‑year, but median price moved only 7.04%. This divergence is a classic mix effect. A handful of high‑acreage, high‑dollar properties pulled the average upward, while the median remained anchored to the typical manufactured home. The acreage distribution illustrates this clearly. The lowest‑acreage properties in both quarters were identical at 0.069 acres, but the upper end of the market expanded dramatically: the largest Q1 2025 sale sat on 34.18 acres, while Q1 2026 included a 107.37‑acre transaction. Median acreage nearly doubled from 0.92 to 1.77 acres, and average acreage more than doubled from 3.55 to 7.96 acres. Total square footage and age, by contrast, remained remarkably stable. The typical manufactured home in Q1 2026 was only 29 years old and just 29 square feetlarger than last year’s average. This stability reinforces the central dynamic of the segment: land is the wildcard variable, and acreage—not dwelling characteristics—drives most of the movement in price, CDOM, and SP/OLP.
Affordability also reflected the quarter’s mix. Despite improved mortgage rates, PABAI barely moved, slipping from 119.49 to 118.04. This stability is expected when the segment’s composition shifts toward larger, more expensive acreage properties. Even so, the number of affordable manufactured homes increased from 30 to 37, a meaningful gain for buyers seeking land‑included options within reach of median incomes. Manufactured homes remain one of the region’s more affordable ownership pathways, particularly for households seeking rural settings or acreage‑based utility.
SP/OLP declined from 95.06% to 91.69%, but this is not a market signal so much as a mix signal. High‑dollar manufactured homes—particularly those in the $1 million to $2 million range—often begin with ambitious list prices and require reductions before finding a qualified buyer. These properties also take longer to sell, contributing to the rise in CDOM from 78 to 118 days. As with SP/OLP, the increase in CDOM reflects the presence of large‑acreage, high‑price listings rather than a broad shift in buyer behavior or market conditions.
Taken together, the regional overview shows a manufactured‑home segment shaped primarily by land intensity and the presence of several large rural transactions. The underlying dwelling characteristics remained stable, affordability held steady, and the segment continued to operate as a small but meaningful part of the Portland Region’s housing ecosystem. This factual context sets the stage for the visual analysis that follows, where the scatter and bubble plots help illustrate how acreage influenced pricing and time on market in Q1 2026.
Portland Region Scatter Plots
To visualize the distribution of individual manufactured homes sales prices across Q1 2026, the following scatter plots show sales price against date of sale:
The scatter plot for Q1 2026 manufactured‑home sales shows a stable mid‑market band with a small number of large rural outliers that shaped the quarter’s averages. Nearly half of all sales this quarter—43.33%—closed between $300,000 and just under $500,000, forming the core of the market and creating the dense central cluster visible in the plot. Roughly 60% of the segment remained under $500,000, and 85% closed under $700,000, reinforcing the consistency of the mid‑range and the affordability profile that manufactured homes typically provide.
Above this central band, the scatter shows several high‑dollar outliers that influenced the quarter’s average price. Two sales exceeded $2 million, and another closed above $1.1 million. These properties sit well above the main cluster and visually demonstrate how a small number of large rural transactions can pull the average upward even when the median moves only modestly. Manufactured homes are uniquely sensitive to these outliers because the segment is small and land‑driven; a single high‑acreage sale can reshape the upper end of the scatter without altering the underlying structure of the mid‑market.
The timeline also reflects the segment’s naturally sporadic cadence. With only 60 sales this quarter, gaps between closings are expected and do not indicate any underlying shift in buyer behavior or market conditions. Manufactured homes trade infrequently, and their distribution across the quarter is shaped more by listing availability and rural transaction timing than by any broader trend.
Overall, the scatter plot illustrates a manufactured‑home market defined by a predictable mid‑market core and a small number of acreage‑driven outliers. The visual distribution aligns with the broader regional trends discussed earlier and provides a clear, factual foundation for the acreage‑based bubble analysis that follows.
To visualize three important variables at one, the following scatter plot shows sales price versus total square footage with each dot sized by acreage (lot size):
One of the most notable features of the plot is the presence of two very large bubbles near the top of the price range. These represent the highest‑dollar sales of the quarter, both closing above $2 million and both situated on exceptionally large lots—more than 100 acres each. Their size and position make clear how acreage drives the upper end of manufactured‑home pricing. The segment posted a land ratio of 1,559.53 this quarter, meaning the largest lot was nearly 1,560 times larger than the smallest lot. This underscores how dominant land value is within this category.
At the other end of the spectrum, many very small bubbles appear throughout the mid‑market band. 38.33% of all Q1 sales closed on lots under 0.50 acres, including properties located within the City of Portland and other urban or suburban settings. By the time the acreage reaches 1.50 acres, more than half the segment (51.67%) has already been accounted for. This wide spread—from compact city parcels to expansive rural acreage—is a defining characteristic of the segment and explains why manufactured homes show such large swings in average price and other metrics from quarter to quarter.
As the bubbles increase in size, a clear pattern emerges: larger bubbles naturally rise toward the upper end of the price range, while smaller bubbles cluster within the mid‑market. Manufactured homes with modest dwelling sizes but substantial land value tend to occupy the top of the scatter, while homes on smaller lots anchor the core of the market. The bubble plot makes this dynamic visually intuitive, showing how land—not square footage—is the primary driver of price variation within the segment.
Overall, this scatter plot reinforces the central theme of the manufactured‑home market in Q1 2026: a stable mid‑market core shaped by typical dwelling sizes, and a small number of large rural transactions that define the upper end of the price spectrum.
Counties & Top Cities Reporting Sales
The following table provides sales count for the region by county for Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025:
Two observations stand out. First, Multnomah and Yamhill were the only counties that lost ground year‑over‑year, with modest declines of 3 and 4 homes respectively. Every other county posted gains, led by Clackamas (+8) and Washington (+7), both of which saw notable increases in manufactured‑home activity. Second, the region as a whole recorded a net gain of 11 manufactured‑home sales, reflecting a broader uptick in segment activity across Q1 2026.
A total of 33 cities reported at least one manufactured‑home sale in Q1 2026, reflecting the segment’s broad geographic reach across the region. To keep the table focused and readable, the summary below highlights cities with three or more sales during the quarter. These communities together accounted for 40.00% of all manufactured‑home activity, providing a clear view of where the segment was most concentrated.
Oregon City led the quarter with 6 sales, representing 10% of the entire manufactured‑home market. The remaining cities each contributed 3 sales, forming a balanced group of mid‑level contributors spread across Clackamas, Washington, Columbia, Hood River, and Yamhill counties.
The following map shows the geographic distribution of manufactured sales for Q1 2025 (blue pins) and Q1 2026 (red pins):
The pattern highlights the broad geographic reach of the segment, with activity appearing in every county and clustering along major corridors such as I‑84, Highway 26 and Highway 47. Rural areas continue to play a significant role in overall volume, but the map also shows a steady presence of manufactured‑home sales throughout the metro.
The following map shows the geographic distribution of manufactured sales centered around the City of Portland:
Unlike the regional map—where rural counties contribute many of the large‑acreage transactions—this metro‑focused view shows how consistently manufactured homes appear within the urban fabric of the region. Concentrations appear throughout Portland, Gresham, Sherwood, Beaverton, Newberg, and Oregon City, illustrating the steady presence of manufactured‑home activity within these city areas.
By isolating the Oregon portion of the metro, the map makes clear that manufactured homes are not limited to rural acreage or outlying counties. Many sales occur on smaller city and suburban parcels, aligning with earlier findings that 38.33% of Q1 2026 manufactured‑home sales closed on lots under 0.50 acres. The density of markers across the westside, eastside, and inner Portland neighborhoods reinforces the segment’s reach across a wide range of communities and lot sizes.
Closing Thoughts
Q1 2026 was a solid quarter for manufactured‑home activity across the region, marked by a meaningful year‑over‑year gain and a broad geographic footprint. The segment added 11 more sales than last year, with most counties posting increases and only Multnomah and Yamhill showing modest declines. The distribution of sales across 33 cities underscores how widely manufactured homes are represented throughout the region, from rural acreage to metro communities.
Acreage variation remained one of the defining characteristics of the segment. More than 38% of Q1 sales closed on lots under 0.50 acres, while two large rural transactions exceeded 100 acres, producing a spread ratio of nearly 1,560. This wide range continues to shape pricing behavior, with land value exerting a strong influence on the upper end of the market. The bubble‑scatter plot made this dynamic clear, showing how larger parcels naturally rise toward the top of the price spectrum while smaller urban and suburban lots anchor the mid‑market.
Taken together, Q1 2026 reflects a stable and geographically diverse manufactured‑home market—one shaped by a mix of small‑lot metro sales and a handful of large rural properties that continue to define the segment’s upper range. The majority of the movement in averages is simply due to the type of properties that closed this quarter.
What trends do you expect to see in Q2 2026? I’d love to hear your thoughts—feel free to reply here or reach out directly.
Sources & Further Reading
All data presented in this quarterly update is sourced directly from RMLS and has been subjected to our rigorous cleaning and validation process to ensure reliability for manufactured residential analysis in the six-county Portland Region. The trends, comparisons, and commentary are the result of original appraisal expertise and independent analysis—not aggregated from secondary sources or news summaries.
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Are you an agent in Portland who wonders why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraiser methodology?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
At today’s 6.55% mortgage rate (the YTD high), the monthly principal‑and‑interest payment on a Q1 2026 Portland Region median-priced detached home ($580,000) with 20% down is $2,948, up from $2,776 at February’s low. Lifetime interest rises to $597,305, and repricing all Q1 loans at today’s rate adds $182M in regional interest.
What Happened This Week
Mortgage rates moved higher this week, with the 30‑year fixed rising to 6.55%—a 6 bps increase from last week and now sitting at the year‑to‑date high. The table below shows where today’s rate sits within the 2026 range, including the February low, last week’s reading, and this week’s breakout to the top of the band.
Time Frame
Date
Rate
Rate Delta
YTD Low
Feb 26, 2026
5.98%
-0.57%
Last Week
July 9, 2026
6.49%
-0.06%
Current Week (YTD High)
July 16, 2026
6.55%
—
Mortgage rate context showing the year‑to‑date low, last week’s rate, and the current week’s rate. Rate Delta reflects the change relative to the current week. January 1, 2026 – July 16, 2026 Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
The broader 2026 pattern remains intact: rates bottomed in late February, climbed sharply through early April, cooled briefly, and then resumed their upward drift beginning April 23. Over the past month and a half, rates have been locked in a narrow, high‑pressure band—oscillating between 6.43% and 6.53%—but this week’s move finally broke that pattern, pushing us decisively to the high side of the 2026 range.
Affordability remains strained at these levels. When rates are elevated, even small increases carry outsized weight, and the week‑to‑week movement—from 6.49% last week to 6.55% today—continues to push monthly payments toward their most challenging point of the year. For buyers operating near qualification limits, these incremental shifts compound quickly and can meaningfully affect which housing types remain viable.
As the charts below show, today’s rate is now pressing against—and slightly exceeding—the upper edge of the 2026 range, and the Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI) continues to reflect the compounding affordability pressure across the Portland Region.
The long‑run chart shows how today’s rate fits into a 25‑year history of mortgage cycles. The early 2000s sat in the 6–8% range, the post‑Great Recession era brought a decade of unusually low rates, and the pandemic period pushed borrowing costs to historic lows. Years after leaving that ultra‑low‑rate environment, the market continues to adjust to more difficult financing constraints, and today’s 6.55% reflects that ongoing shift. With this week’s jump, rates remain elevated in a long‑term context, and affordability continues to be shaped by the same structural pressures highlighted in the medium‑run and short‑run views.
Medium‑Run View (Since COVID)
The COVID‑era chart highlights the dramatic rate compression of 2020–2021, the rapid surge of 2022, and the choppy plateau that has defined the past two years. Rates have been oscillating between roughly 6% and 7% since mid‑2023, and today’s 6.55% sits near the upper portion of that band. Volatility has cooled compared to 2022, but the medium‑run trend remains one of elevated and persistent borrowing costs, with the market continuing to adjust to structurally higher financing conditions across the Portland Region.
Short‑Run View (2026 YTD)
The year‑to‑date chart shows the full shape of the 2026 cycle: a clear bottom at 5.98% on February 26th, a sharp rise into early April, a brief cooldown, and a renewed climb that pushed rates to 6.53% in late May—the highest level of the year at the time. This week’s reading of 6.55% now exceeds that prior peak, establishing a new YTD high and keeping affordability at its most challenging point of 2026. This short‑run pattern is the most relevant for buyers today, as it directly shapes monthly payments and qualifying power across the Portland Region.
Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI)
What PABAI Measures
The Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI) is a model that estimates how home sale prices compare to what a median‑income household can qualify for under standard lending assumptions (HUD Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA median income, 20% down, and a 28% DTI for principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues).
Unlike national affordability indices, PABAI is built from actual RMLS transactions rather than a single hypothetical price point. It computes an affordability ratio for every closed sale in the Portland Region during the analysis period using rates matched to the date of close, reported taxes, reported HOA dues, and an insurance estimate based on a percentage of the home’s value. The individual affordability ratios are then averaged to produce the reported PABAI value for that period. For Q1 2026, this approach captures the actual mix of homes sold and the financing conditions present at the time those transactions occurred. Each housing segment—detached, attached, condos, and manufactured—is calculated separately, ensuring that segment‑specific dynamics are preserved rather than blended together. This approach provides a more detailed, locally grounded view of Portland‑area affordability and avoids the distortions that occur when fundamentally different housing types are combined into a single regional metric.
A PABAI of 100 means the market is exactly affordable at that income level (the Q1 2026 HUD median MSA income was $124,100 for a family of four). Values above 100 indicate excess qualifying capacity (more affordable), while values below 100 indicate a shortfall (strained affordability). Full methodology and the interpretation scale are available on the PABAI explainer page.
PABAI Range
Interpretation
120+
Strongly Affordable
100–119
Moderately Affordable
80–99
Strained
Below 80
Severely Constrained
Q1 2026: Actual vs. Constant‑Rate Affordability
The Q1 chart compares two versions of PABAI: one using actual weekly mortgage rates, and one using today’s rate (6.55%) as a constant. Because the constant‑rate line uses a rate at the very top of the 2026 range, it naturally sits below the actual‑rate line for every week of the quarter. That part isn’t the story.
The key insight is the size and behavior of the gap between the two lines. Early in the quarter, actual rates were meaningfully lower than today’s rate, giving buyers more qualifying power than a flat‑rate environment would suggest. As rates climbed through March, the two lines began to converge—a visual confirmation of how persistent rate increases eroded affordability heading into spring. With today’s 6.55% rate now at the year‑to‑date high, the constant‑rate line sits even closer to the actual‑rate line at the end of Q1, reflecting the tightening affordability conditions that carried into mid‑ and late‑spring across the Portland Region.
Structural Unaffordability and the Seasonal Pattern
Detached homes in the Portland Region remain structurally unaffordable to a household earning the HUD median MSA income. PABAI has been below 100 for years, and Q1 2026 continues that pattern. What the chart makes clear is that winter remains the best window for buyers on tight qualifying budgets: affordability improves when rates soften and seasonal pricing cools. As spring approaches, both rates and prices firm up, and affordability reliably compresses.
With the 30‑year fixed now sitting at the highest level of 2026, the convergence of the two PABAI lines at the end of the quarter reflects the same reality: rising rates have pushed qualifying costs to their weakest point of the year, and the early‑year affordability advantage has largely evaporated. Today’s 6.55% reading keeps affordability firmly in the strained range, underscoring how sensitive the market remains to even small rate movements.
Affordability Snapshot (This Week)
Q1 2026 Affordability Recomputed at Today’s Rate
The table below shows how Q1 2026 affordability metrics change when all 3,349 detached sales are recalculated at this week’s 6.55% rate. This is the clearest way to see how rising rates reshape qualifying power, housing burden, and the share of homes accessible to a median‑income household.
Because today’s rate now sits at the highest point of the 2026 YTD range, the recomputed metrics show a pronounced deterioration in affordability relative to the actual Q1 environment. Required income rises, housing burden increases, and the number of homes affordable to a median‑income household falls sharply—a direct reflection of how elevated rates compound qualifying pressure. Even small movements at these levels materially shift the boundary of what a median‑income buyer can access.
Taken together, these metrics show how quickly affordability erodes when rates rise into the mid‑6% range. The drop in Average PABAI from 85.45 to 82.26 may look modest at first glance, but it represents a meaningful tightening of qualifying power across the entire detached market. Required income rises to roughly $150,900, widening the gap between what a median‑income household earns and what the market demands. That shortfall now reaches 21.56%, a reminder that the typical Portland household remains well outside traditional affordability thresholds.
The payment side tells the same story. Recomputing Q1 sales at today’s rate pushes the average monthly mortgage obligation up by about $150, which may seem incremental on a monthly basis but compounds sharply over a 30‑year horizon. More importantly, the higher rate pushes the average front‑end DTI from 38.03% to 39.48%, a level that would be considered stretched even in more forgiving underwriting environments. These shifts are not abstract; they directly shape who can buy, what they can buy, and how competitive they can be.
The Buyer‑Side Impact
The most visible consequence of these changes is the shrinking pool of homes accessible to a median‑income household. Under actual Q1 2026 rates, 967 detached homes were affordable; at today’s rate, that number falls to 824. In percentage terms, the share of the market within reach drops from 28.87% to 24.60%—a loss of more than four percentage points in a single recalculation. This is the practical expression of rising rates: fewer viable options, tighter qualifying margins, and a market that becomes increasingly selective about who can participate.
For buyers, the experience varies by circumstance but the direction is the same. Households with limited flexibility feel the tightening most acutely, as even small rate movements can eliminate entire segments of the market. Move‑up buyers face a widening payment gap between their current home and the next one, making the trade‑up calculus more difficult unless equity is substantial. Cash buyers, by contrast, gain relative leverage as financed demand thins—though that advantage is uneven across price tiers.
Across all buyer types, the message is consistent: rising rates are reshaping the market in real time, and the affordability landscape at a 6.55% mortgage rate is meaningfully different from the one buyers faced just a few months ago. The shift is incremental week to week, but cumulative in effect—a defining feature of today’s strained affordability environment.
The Seller‑Side Impact
Rising rates don’t just reshape the buyer experience—they influence seller outcomes as well. In the Q1 2026 detached market, cumulative days on market (CDOM) increased 11.27%, and the current rate environment suggests that upward pressure on market times may persist. As affordability tightens and the pool of qualified buyers shrinks, homes that would have moved quickly in a lower‑rate environment may begin to sit longer, particularly in segments where pricing is already stretched.
Today’s 6.55% rate keeps financing conditions at the most challenging level of 2026, reinforcing the same dynamic: fewer qualified buyers, more selective demand, and a market where pricing precision matters. This doesn’t imply an abrupt market slowdown, but it does mean sellers should expect a more deliberate buyer pool and prepare for longer market times—especially in higher‑priced tiers where rate sensitivity is most acute.
TIP: Total Interest Paid — Why Small Rate Moves Matter
Total Interest Paid (TIP) is one of the clearest ways to understand how mortgage rates shape long‑run affordability. While buyers shop based on monthly payment, the lifetime cost of borrowing moves far more dramatically than the payment itself. Even small rate changes can add—or remove—tens of thousands of dollars in interest over the life of a loan.
At today’s 6.55% rate, the lifetime interest on a standard Portland‑area purchase sits far above the levels buyers saw during the pandemic and meaningfully higher than the early‑March lows of this year. The difference between a 5.98% environment and a 6.55% environment may feel subtle on a monthly basis, but over 30 years it compounds into a substantial increase in total repayment—the kind of shift that materially affects long‑run household finances in the Portland Region.
This is why TIP matters: it captures the hidden cost of rising rates. Buyers feel the payment, but the long‑run financial burden is embedded in the interest curve. As the charts below show, the 2026 rate path has pushed TIP to the highest levels of the year, even as the monthly payment has moved more gradually. The cumulative effect is what reshapes affordability—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing TIP across different rate scenarios.
2026 YTD Total Interest Paid
Note: The y-axis starts at $500,000 to allow better examination of monthly differences.
The 2026 YTD TIP chart shows how sharply lifetime borrowing costs have moved as rates climbed through the first half of the year. These calculations are based on the total interest a buyer would pay on the Q1 2026 Portland median‑priced home of $580,000, assuming a 20% down payment and applying the rate effective in each week. This isolates the impact of rate movements alone, holding price and loan structure constant.
The low point came on February 26th, when a 5.98% mortgage rate produced a total interest burden of $535,342. As rates rose through March and into late May, TIP increased steadily, reaching a then year‑to‑date high of $595,104 at the 6.53% rate on May 28th. That’s nearly a $60,000 increase in lifetime interest in just three months, driven entirely by rate movement.
This week’s 6.55% rate pushes TIP to a new year‑to‑date high: the total interest burden at today’s rate is $597,305, exceeding last week’s level and marking the most expensive borrowing environment of 2026 so far. The shape of the chart makes the pattern unmistakable—at today’s price levels, even small rate changes translate into large long‑run cost differences. Buyers feel the monthly payment, but the lifetime interest curve is where the true financial impact of rising rates becomes visible, especially when comparing TIP across different rate environments.
TIP per $1 Borrowed
The TIP‑per‑$1 chart shows how much interest a buyer pays for every dollar borrowed at different mortgage rates. This is the clearest way to visualize the rate sensitivity of long‑run borrowing costs. At the year‑to‑date low of 5.98%, each dollar borrowed generated about $1.1538 in interest over the life of the loan. As rates climbed through the spring, that figure rose steadily, reaching $1.2826 at the late‑May peak of 6.53%.
Today’s 6.55% rate pushes the cost to $1.2873 per $1 borrowed—the highest level of 2026 so far. The line makes the pattern clear: once rates move into the mid‑6% range, each additional uptick adds meaningfully more lifetime interest—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing rate environments side by side.
Regional Interest Delta (RID)
The Regional Interest Delta (RID) models how much total lifetime interest the Portland Region’s Q1 detached‑home buyers would collectively pay when mortgage rates shift. To keep the metric consistent, RID assumes that all 3,349 Q1 detached sales were financed under standard 20%‑down, 30‑year conventional underwriting, even though the actual dataset includes cash purchases and loans under FHA, VA, jumbo, and other programs. Rates are matched to each home’s close date to reflect the real timing of rate movements, but individual buyers may have locked slightly different rates depending on their specific loan terms. This approach provides a clean, apples‑to‑apples way to measure how rate changes affect the region’s total interest burden.
Scenario
Rate
Total Lifetime Interest
RID
Actual Q1 2026 Pipeline
Actual rate matched to close date
$2,091,901,976
—
Modeled at Today’s Rate
6.55%
$2,273,517,548
+$181,615,572
The Regional Interest Delta (RID) is a modeled estimate assuming all Q1 2026 detached sales were financed under standard 20%-down, 30-year conventional terms. Actual loan terms may vary. Single-family Detached | Q1 2026 Data: RMLS (3,349 observations) | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Using those actual matched rates, the region’s Q1 2026 pipeline would generate $2,091,901,976 in lifetime interest. Recomputing the same loans at today’s 6.55% rate increases the total to $2,273,517,548. The difference—the RID—is $181,615,572 in additional lifetime interest.
To put that number in perspective: $152 million is the cost of hollywoodHUB, a 222‑unit affordable housing development in Portland. A single rate shift—applied across one quarter’s mortgage activity—creates a lifetime interest delta larger than the cost of building an entire affordable housing project from the ground up. Today’s RID exceeds that benchmark by nearly $30 million, underscoring how dramatically elevated rates scale when applied across thousands of loans.
RID makes the scale of rate changes unmistakable. What looks like a modest shift at the household level becomes a region‑wide financial impact when applied across thousands of mortgages—a reminder of how sensitive the Portland market remains to even small movements in the 30‑year fixed.
Payment Delta
The Payment Delta shows how monthly affordability shifts as mortgage rates move. Using the Q1 2026 Portland median‑priced home of $580,000 with a 20% down payment, the monthly principal‑and‑interest payment changes meaningfully even with small rate movements.
Date
Rate
Monthly P&I
Pmt Delta
Feb 26, 2026
5.98%
$2,775.95
—
July 9, 2026
6.49%
$2,929.74
+$153.79
July 16, 2026
6.55%
$2,948.07
+$172.12
Payment Delta reflects the change from the year‑to‑date low on February 26. Monthly payment for home using median Q1 2026 price ($580,000) and 20% down. Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Monthly payments remain meaningfully higher than the February low. At 5.98%, the Q1 median‑priced home carried a principal‑and‑interest payment of $2,775.95. Today’s 6.55% rate pushes that figure to $2,948.07, a $172.12 increase from the year‑to‑date low. Even the week‑to‑week movement—from last week’s 6.49% to this week’s 6.55%—adds another $18.33 to the monthly payment, a small but noticeable shift for buyers operating near qualification limits.
While the Payment Delta is smaller in scale than the lifetime interest changes shown in TIP and RID, it is the number buyers feel most immediately. For households shopping at the lower end of the market, even a $150–$175 increase can meaningfully affect qualifying ratios, required down payment, or even which housing types remain viable. These shifts often push buyers from detached homes into attached homes or condos, or require sellers to offer concessions or rate buydowns to keep deals together.
Payment Delta remains one of the clearest week‑to‑week indicators of how rate movements translate directly into buyer experience—small changes in rates can quickly reshape what is affordable, especially for affordability‑sensitive buyers.
Purchasing Power
The table below shows how purchasing power has changed since the year‑to‑date low, based on a range of monthly P&I budgets. At February’s 5.98% rate, buyers could finance meaningfully more than they can at today’s 6.55% rate.
Target Monthly P&I Budget
Purchasing Power at YTD Low Rate (5.98%)
Purchasing Power at Today’s Rate (6.55%)
Change in YTD Low Purchasing Power
$2,000
$417,875
$393,478
-$24,397
$2,500
$522,344
$491,847
-$30,496
$3,000
$626,812
$590,217
-$36,596
$3,500
$731,281
$688,586
-$42,695
$4,000
$835,750
$786,956
-$48,794
$4,500
$940,218
$885,325
-$54,893
$5,000
$1,044,687
$983,695
-$60,993
$5,500
$1,149,156
$1,082,064
-$67,092
$6,000
$1,253,624
$1,180,433
-$73,191
Purchasing power comparison assumes 20% down and reflects principal and interest (P&I) only. Calculations use the YTD low rate (5.98%) and today’s rate (6.55%) across common monthly P&I budgets. Actual purchasing power is lower once taxes, insurance, and HOA dues are included. Rates are based on the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Purchasing power has fallen by $24,397 to $73,191 since the YTD low, depending on the monthly budget. For most buyers in the Portland Region—especially those shopping near the Q1 2026 median price of $580,000—the relevant range is typically $2,500 to $3,000 in monthly P&I. In that bracket, purchasing power has dropped by $30,496 to $36,596, a decline of roughly 5.84%. That is a meaningful shift for buyers operating near their maximum qualification limits.
It’s also important to note that this table reflects principal and interest only. Actual purchasing power is lower once property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and other housing costs are included. These additional expenses often push buyers out of certain price brackets even when the P&I budget appears workable—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing detached homes, attached homes, and condos.
For sellers, a $30,000–$37,000 reduction in purchasing power at common buyer budgets can materially affect demand. When buyers are stretched, sellers may need to offer concessions or rate buydowns to keep deals together. At today’s 6.55% rate, even modest increases can reshape what buyers can finance, and the cumulative decline from the YTD low remains one of the clearest indicators of affordability pressure in 2026.
Payment Milestones
The table below shows the key payoff milestones for a loan originated this month, with the first payment due on the first of next month. Each milestone reflects how much of the loan has been repaid and how much interest has accrued by that point at today’s 6.55% rate.
Milestone
% of Loan Paid
Calendar Date
Interest Paid to Date
Early Equity
10%
Dec-2033
$212,664
Quarter Paid
25%
Nov-2040
$387,176
Half Paid
50%
Jan-2048
$525,455
Three-Quarters
75%
Dec-2052
$582,627
Payment milestone assumptions: Schedule assumes a loan originated in July 2026 with the first payment due August 1, 2026. Amortization is based on the Q1 2026 median price ($580,000) with 20% down, using the current 6.55% rate from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
These milestones highlight how interest‑heavy the early and middle years of the amortization schedule remain at current rates. At today’s 6.55% rate, early equity arrives in December 2033, roughly seven years into repayment, after $212,664 in interest has already been paid. The halfway point does not arrive until January 2048, by which time cumulative interest reaches $525,455. Even at the 75% milestone in December 2052, interest continues to dominate the totals—a reminder of how slowly principal reduction accelerates at mid‑6% rates.
Milestones like these help illustrate why small rate changes matter: higher rates push each payoff marker further into the future and increase the amount of interest paid before meaningful principal reduction occurs. At today’s rate, principal reduction accelerates only in the later years of the amortization schedule, reinforcing how front‑loaded interest remains throughout the loan’s life. This is the long‑run counterpart to Payment Delta and TIP—the structural impact of rate movement becomes clearest when viewed across decades rather than months.
Closing Thoughts
The story of this week is straightforward: mortgage rates remain elevated, and the effects are visible across every major affordability metric. The PABAI continues to signal structural strain for median‑income households, and the recalculated Q1 data shows how even modest rate movements reshape qualifying power, monthly payments, and the share of homes within reach. The TIP and RID visuals make the pattern clear: higher rates don’t just affect individual buyers—they reshape the long‑run financial burden carried across the entire region.
For buyers, the takeaway is that financing conditions remain tight as we move deeper into early summer. Winter continues to offer the best affordability window, but today’s 6.55% rate means households on the margin feel pressure sooner and more sharply than in prior years. The Purchasing Power table shows how much buying capacity has eroded since the YTD low, with common buyer budgets losing $30,000–$36,000 of reach. Combined with a Payment Delta that now sits more than $170 above February’s low, buyers face tighter qualifying ratios and fewer viable options. Even the Payment Milestones reinforce the same theme: at mid‑6% rates, interest dominates the early and middle years of repayment, delaying meaningful principal reduction.
For sellers, the implications are more subtle but no less real. The Q1 2026 detached market saw CDOM rise more than 11%, and the current rate backdrop suggests that upward pressure on market times may persist. A smaller pool of qualified buyers, reduced purchasing power, and higher monthly payments can translate into longer exposure—especially for homes priced aggressively or positioned in segments where affordability is already stretched. Pricing discipline, strategic concessions, and realistic expectations matter more in this environment than they did during the ultra‑low‑rate era.
As always, the Portland market adapts—sometimes quickly, sometimes reluctantly—but the direction of travel is clear. Higher rates are reshaping both sides of the transaction, and the early summer of 2026 is operating under some of the most constrained financing conditions we’ve seen this year.
Sources & Further Reading
All data presented in this weekly mortgage rate update is based on the Q1 2026 detached homes segment. The data is sourced directly from RMLS and has been subjected to rigorous cleaning and validation processes to ensure reliability for detached single-family residential analysis in the six-county Portland Region. The trends, comparisons, and commentary are the result of original appraisal expertise and independent analysis—not aggregated from secondary sources or news summaries.
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®): Dataset
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Are you an agent in Portland who wonders why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraiser methodology?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
The Q1 2026 Portland Region attached‑home update: median price $420k (‑5%), PPSF $287 (‑4%), sales +10%, dollar volume +4%. Affordability jumps to 69% (+41 pts) of the market. New construction +15%. County patterns, builder pivots, appraisal insights and more.
The Portland White Stag sign. Photo: Abdur Abdul-Malik, Portland Appraisal Blog
Introduction
The first quarter of 2026 was a study in contrasts across the Portland region’s attached‑home market. The three major counties—Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas—continued to anchor the segment, each revealing its own distinct pattern of demand, pricing behavior, and builder activity. Together they formed the core of the regional story: softer prices, steady buyer engagement, and a noticeable shift in how builders are positioning new product. Beneath those broad themes, however, each county expressed the quarter differently, shaped by its inventory profile, geography, and development pipeline.
Washington County remained the region’s most uniform and predictable attached‑home market, with tight clustering in the mid‑price bands and a clear, data‑driven softening that still preserved strong absorption. Multnomah showed more variation, with affordability improving and pricing adjusting in a way that reflected both buyer sensitivity and the county’s diverse housing stock. Clackamas, by contrast, continued to operate at a higher price level, with a dense band of activity in the low‑$400s and a meaningful upper‑tier presence. Builders in Clackamas also made a notable pivot toward smaller new‑construction units—a strategic response to qualification thresholds that shaped the quarter’s pricing dynamics.
Outside the “Big Three,” the story was defined not by trends but by scale. Yamhill, Columbia, and Hood River each recorded only a handful of attached‑home sales, and their year‑over‑year changes reflected the volatility inherent in extremely small datasets. In these counties, a single closing can shift averages dramatically, and the absence of just a few transactions can reshape dollar volume.
Taken together, Q1 2026 shows a region adjusting to softer demand with realistic pricing, steady buyer participation, and builder strategies increasingly aligned with affordability constraints.
The Portland Region in this update comprises the six Oregon counties of Columbia, Clackamas, Hood River, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill. These counties form a contiguous housing ecosystem centered on Portland—Multnomah as the core home county, with the others tightly integrated through commuting patterns, economic ties, and shared market dynamics (e.g., Yamhill’s strong connection via Highway 99W and wine-country adjacency). Beyond Yamhill, the MLS system changes, further distinguishing this six-county area from broader geographic aggregations. For a detailed overview—including county profiles, population data, key value influencers, and why this definition differs from the official seven-county Portland–Vancouver–Hillsboro MSA—see the dedicated page: The Portland Region – Six-County Market Area Overview.
All data is sourced from RMLS and reflects open-market attached single-family residential sales. SNL (“Sold Not Listed”) entries—off-market transactions entered retroactively—have been excluded to preserve consistency with true market activity.
All figures have undergone a standard cleaning process to address common RMLS accuracy challenges, including misclassifications (such as condominiums listed as attached homes), square‑footage and price entry errors, incomplete fields, status/date mismatches, and other non‑representative entries. This post focuses exclusively on attached homes on owned land; while a condominium townhome and an attached townhome may appear similar, their ownership structures differ substantially. Condominiums are therefore carefully removed from this dataset. For a detailed overview of these issues, their impact on market analysis, and the mitigation steps used (automated flagging, cross‑verification, and manual review), see the dedicated page: RMLS Data Accuracy Challenges.
Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI)
What PABAI Measures
The Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI) is a model that estimates how home sale prices compare to what a median‑income household can qualify for under standard lending assumptions (HUD Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA median income, 20% down, and a 28% DTI for principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues).
Unlike national affordability indices, PABAI is built from actual RMLS transactions rather than a single hypothetical price point. It computes an affordability ratio for every closed sale in the Portland Region during the analysis period using rates matched to the date of close, reported taxes, reported HOA dues, and an insurance estimate based on a percentage of the home’s value. The individual affordability ratios are then averaged to produce the reported PABAI value for that period. For Q1 2026, this approach captures the actual mix of homes sold and the financing conditions present at the time those transactions occurred. Each housing segment—detached, attached, condos, and manufactured—is calculated separately, ensuring that segment‑specific dynamics are preserved rather than blended together. This approach provides a more detailed, locally grounded view of Portland‑area affordability and avoids the distortions that occur when fundamentally different housing types are combined into a single regional metric.
A PABAI of 100 means the market is exactly affordable at that income level (the Q1 2026 HUD median MSA income was $124,100 for a family of four). Values above 100 indicate excess qualifying capacity (more affordable), while values below 100 indicate a shortfall (strained affordability). Full methodology and the interpretation scale are available on the PABAI explainer page.
PABAI Range
Interpretation
120+
Strongly Affordable
100–119
Moderately Affordable
80–99
Strained
Below 80
Severely Constrained
Note: While every sale produces an affordability ratio, the PABAI itself requires at least 20 sales to be statistically meaningful. Counties with fewer than 20 attached sales will report affordability counts and percentages, but not a PABAI.
Residential Housing Snapshot
Category
Detached
Attached
Condo
Manuf.
Total $ Volume
$2.2B
$161.0M
$199.0M
$32.4M
Avg Price
$659,197
$444,672
$389,438
$540,352
Avg PPSF (Total SF)
$316.21
$286.91
$325.55
$356.75
Avg Total SF
2,164
1,576
1,180
1,571
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.655
0.066
N/A
7.959
Avg Age (Yrs)
46.03
15.09
32.03
29.10
Avg CDOM
80.22
80.59
119.62
118.25
# of Sales
3,349
362
511
60
% of Market
78.21%
8.45%
11.93%
1.40%
Highest Sale
$5,725,950
$1,175,000
$2,450,000
$2,400,000
Lowest Sale
$135,000
$249,000
$100,000
$199,700
Price Spread Ratio
42.41
4.72
24.50
12.02
PPSF Spread Ratio
30.93
4.08
11.91
13.29
Total SF Spread Ratio
23.46
4.14
12.24
3.52
Avg PABAI
85.45
110.38
122.83
118.04
Q1 2026 (4,282 total residential sales). Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
The four residential segments in the Portland Region continue to operate as a tightly connected ecosystem, each shaping and responding to the others in predictable ways. Detached homes remain the anchor segment—by far the largest in both sales count and dollar volume—and their scale sets the tone for regional pricing, land intensity, and buyer movement. With more than 3,300 sales and over $2.2 billion in closed volume this quarter, detached homes define the outer boundaries of what the market can deliver, from sub‑$150,000 fixers to multi‑million‑dollar estates. Their wide spread ratios across price, PPSF, and size reflect this internal diversity and underscore why detached remains the segment most buyers prefer even when affordability pushes them elsewhere.
Attached homes sit directly beneath detached in the regional hierarchy and serve as the clearest alternative when detached becomes harder to access. They are the youngest segment in the metro—averaging just over 15 years old—and the most uniform, with tight spread ratios that signal a highly consistent, commodity‑like product. Their average price of $444,672 and moderate affordability (PABAI 110.38) position them as the region’s primary safety‑net for buyers priced out of detached homes. The typical attached home is smaller, newer, and far more predictable in layout and utility than detached, and this consistency is a defining feature of the segment. In Q1 2026, attached homes represented 8.45% of all residential sales but played an outsized role in absorbing affordability‑sensitive demand.
Condos remain the most affordable segment in the region, with a PABAI of 122.83 this quarter, but affordability alone does not translate into broad appeal. They are also geographically concentrated: 67.71% of all condo sales occurred in Multnomah County, with most located in the City of Portland. This concentration reflects both historical development patterns and buyer preferences—condos are scarce or nonexistent in many suburban and rural areas where detached and attached homes dominate. Their average age is more than double that of attached homes, and HOA dues shape both buyer preferences and long‑term affordability. Condos make up nearly 12% of all Q1 sales yet contribute less than 8% of total dollar volume. Given the lower average price compared to all other segments, this gap is expected and reflects the structural role condos play in the ecosystem—an accessible option for some buyers, but not a proportional driver of regional dollar volume.
Manufactured homes represent the smallest segment by far, with only 60 sales this quarter. Their averages run high because many transactions include significant acreage—an average lot size of nearly eight acres—and with such a small sample, outliers exert more influence on segment averages than in any other category. Manufactured homes share several surface‑level similarities with condos (age, CDOM, affordability), but diverge sharply in how they trade: manufactured homes trade on land, while condos trade on dues.
Across the ecosystem, three of the four segments cluster in the low–mid $300s PPSF, underscoring that structure cost is relatively consistent across the metro. It is land, size, dues, and buyer preferences that create the separation between segments. Detached homes show the widest internal variation, attached homes the tightest, condos a bimodal profile shaped by older stock and boutique new construction, and manufactured homes a land‑driven spread that reflects acreage more than dwelling characteristics. This snapshot frames the broader regional context and sets the stage for the attached‑home‑specific analysis that follows.
Portland Region Q1 2026 Overview
Overall Regional Trends
The table below summarizes key metrics for attached homes residential sales in the Portland Region (Columbia, Clackamas, Hood River, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties) for Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$154,193,082
$160,971,196
+4.40%
Average Price
$470,101
$444,672
-5.41%
Median Price
$442,425
$420,250
-5.01%
Avg SP/OLP
97.30%
96.31%
-1.02%
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$297.52
$286.91
-3.56%
Avg HOA Dues
$243.36
$255.05
+4.81%
Median HOA Dues
$215.50
$233.00
+8.12%
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.0621
0.0657
+5.71%
Avg Age (Yrs)
14.40
15.09
+4.85%
Avg CDOM
84.02
80.59
-4.07%
Avg Total SF
1,604
1,576
-1.76%
Total # of Sales
328
362
+10.37%
# of New Constr.
131
150
+14.50%
# of REOs
0
2
—
# of Short Sales
0
0
—
Average PABAI
93.43
110.38
+16.95 pts
# Affordable
118
250
+132 homes
% Affordable
35.98%
69.06%
+40.90 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (260 sales for Q1 2025 & 279 sales for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Key Observations From the Aggregate Data
The attached‑home segment softened meaningfully in Q1 2026, and the year‑over‑year comparison highlights a market adjusting to both price pressure and improved borrowing conditions. Average and median prices declined around five percent. This softness is not isolated—most counties saw similar declines—but Washington County’s dominance in attached‑home activity (51.38% of all regional sales) means its pricing trends exert the strongest pull on the regional averages. The ongoing impact of the Intel layoffs likely contributed to slightly faster market times, modestly lower prices, and a sharp improvement in affordability metrics.
Affordability is the standout story of the quarter. The segment flipped from strained to moderately affordable, with the PABAI jumping from 93.4 to 110.4. This is a substantial shift and reflects the combined effect of lower prices and better interest rates. The share of affordable attached homes surged from 35.98% to 69.06%, adding 132 more qualifying homes to the pool. This is not a compositional artifact; it is a direct response to improved lending conditions and softer pricing. When affordability improves, demand typically follows, and Q1 2026 delivered exactly that pattern.
Sales volume rose 10.37% year‑over‑year, and total dollar volume increased 4.40%. Importantly, the rise in dollar volume was driven by more sales, not higher prices. This distinction matters: it signals a market where buyers are re‑entering due to improved conditions rather than chasing rising values. The attached segment often acts as the pressure‑release valve for buyers priced out of detached homes, and this quarter’s data reinforces that role.
New construction played a meaningful part in the quarter’s dynamics. Closings increased from 131 to 150 (+14.50%), and Washington County accounted for roughly 60% of all new attached homes. This continues a multi‑year pattern in which Washington County favors new attached homes over new condos—a stark contrast to the condominium segment, which recorded zero new‑construction closings in Q1 2026. The slight increase in average age (14.40 → 15.09) despite more new construction indicates that the older resale stock still dominates the segment’s composition.
Market efficiency improved modestly. Cumulative days on market tightened from 84.02 to 80.59, and sellers yielded slightly more ground on pricing, with the average SP/OLP ratio dipping from 97.30% to 96.31%. These are small but meaningful signals of a market adjusting to softer pricing expectations. Distress remains negligible—only two REO sales and zero short sales—confirming that the segment’s softness is driven by normal market forces rather than financial stress.
Property characteristics remained stable. Square footage declined slightly (–1.76%), lot size held steady, and PPSF (based on total square footage) fell modestly (–3.56%). HOA dues increased, but only modestly (median +8.12%), far below the condominium segment’s 14% median jump. This stability reinforces that the segment’s year‑over‑year changes are driven primarily by pricing and interest‑rate dynamics rather than shifts in the underlying housing stock.
All six counties recorded attached‑home sales, though several had only a handful of closings. These counties will receive factual micro‑summaries later in the post, but the regional trends are overwhelmingly shaped by Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties—with Washington County exerting the strongest influence due to its sheer volume.
Overall, Q1 2026 delivered a more affordable, more active, and slightly softer attached‑home market—one that responded predictably to improved rates and regional economic conditions. The segment’s role as the metro’s safety-net housing option is fully on display in this dataset.
Portland Region Scatter Plots
To visualize the distribution of individual attached homes sales prices across Q1 2026, the following scatter plots show sales price against date of sale:
The full‑quarter scatter plot provides a clear visual of how attached‑home prices distributed across Q1 2026. Even with normal day‑to‑day variation, the segment shows a remarkably tight mid‑market band: more than 70% of all attached sales closed between $350,000 and $499,999, and over 31% clustered specifically in the $400,000–$449,999 range. This concentration is exactly what the spread‑ratio metrics signal—attached homes are the metro’s most uniform, commodity‑like segment, with predictable layouts, consistent utility, and limited variation in size.
The scatter also shows a modest number of lower‑priced sales, but they are rare. Only eight sales closed below $300,000, and just one sale fell below $250,000. This scarcity reinforces the segment’s role in the ecosystem: attached homes are more affordable than detached, but they are not an entry‑level segment in the same way condos can be. Buyers seeking sub‑$300,000 opportunities generally must look to condominiums or manufactured homes.
At the upper end, the scatter includes a small number of premium attached homes, with roughly a dozen sales above $700,000 and three sales at or above $950,000. These outliers demonstrate that the segment can support higher‑end product in select neighborhoods, but they are too infrequent to influence regional averages or affordability metrics.
Activity is evenly distributed across the quarter, with no visible surges or drop‑offs. This aligns with the sales‑count data: closings increased year‑over‑year, driven by improved affordability and a notable rise in new‑construction deliveries. The scatter shows no abrupt price spikes or collapses—just a steady, slightly softer price environment consistent with the five‑percent decline in average and median values.
Overall, the full scatter plot reinforces the defining characteristics of the attached‑home segment: stable demand, tight pricing distribution, and a mid‑market profile that anchors the region’s affordability landscape.
Zooming in on sales priced at $600,000 or less, we have:
Note: The y-axis starts at $200,000 to allow better examination of the scatter plot.
The zoomed‑in scatter plot sharpens what the full‑scale view already suggested: attached‑home prices in Q1 2026 were tightly concentrated in the mid‑market band. With the vertical axis capped at $650,000, the plot highlights the segment’s core range—roughly $300,000 to $550,000—where nearly 80% of all sales occurred. The clustering is dense, consistent, and evenly distributed across the quarter, reinforcing the segment’s commodity‑like profile and the stability of demand throughout Q1.
The zoomed view also makes the lower‑priced portion of the market easier to see. Only a handful of sales fell below $300,000, and just one dipped below $250,000. This scarcity underscores that attached homes are not the region’s entry‑level segment; buyers seeking sub‑$300,000 opportunities overwhelmingly turn to condos or manufactured homes instead.
At the upper end, the zoomed plot shows a small number of sales pushing into the $600,000–$650,000 range. These are the same premium outliers visible in the full scatter, but the zoomed view makes clear how infrequent they are relative to the segment’s core. They represent neighborhood‑specific product rather than a broader trend.
Overall, the zoomed‑in scatter confirms the defining characteristics of the attached‑home segment: a tight, predictable price distribution; steady activity across the quarter; and a mid‑market profile that aligns with the segment’s role as the region’s primary affordability bridge between condos and detached homes.
Sales Volume
A treemap visualizing the distribution of attached homes sales by county in Q1 2026 clearly illustrates the market’s geographic concentration.
The treemap makes the geographic structure of the attached‑home market immediately clear: activity in Q1 2026 was overwhelmingly concentrated in the Big Three counties, with Washington County dominating the segment. More than half of all attached‑home closings occurred in Washington County alone, reflecting both its larger suburban housing base and its multi‑year preference for attached homes over condominiums. Multnomah and Clackamas counties round out the core, together contributing another 44% of all sales. In total, 96.13% of the region’s attached‑home activity came from the Big Three, underscoring how tightly the segment is anchored to the metro’s primary population and employment centers.
The remaining counties—Yamhill, Columbia, and Hood River—recorded only modest activity, with a combined 14 sales. These counties routinely produce small attached‑home counts due to their housing stock composition, development patterns, and buyer preferences. Their limited volume does not materially influence regional averages, but their participation confirms that attached homes are present, albeit sparsely, across the full six‑county region.
Washington County’s outsized share is especially important for interpreting regional trends. Because it accounts for 51.38% of all attached closings, its pricing, affordability, and new‑construction dynamics exert the strongest pull on the regional metrics discussed earlier. The treemap visually reinforces this influence: Washington County is not just the largest block—it is the structural center of the attached‑home market in Q1 2026.
The bar chart below compares monthly sales volume across the three months of Q1 for 2025 and Q1 2026.
The month‑by‑month comparison highlights how attached‑home activity evolved across the quarter and why total sales ultimately finished higher than in Q1 2025. The pattern is uneven but intuitive: softer pricing and improved affordability brought more buyers back into the market, but the timing of that return varied by month.
January posted a modest increase, rising from 89 to 99 sales (+10). This aligns with the early‑quarter improvement in rates and the segment’s overall affordability shift. February, however, moved in the opposite direction, declining from 127 to 99 sales (–28).
March delivered the decisive shift. Sales jumped from 112 to 164 (+52), the strongest monthly gain of the quarter and the clearest signal of renewed buyer engagement. This surge is consistent with the broader Q1 narrative: affordability improved sharply, new‑construction closings increased, and the region’s core counties saw more buyers re‑enter the market.
While Washington County held nearly steady year‑over‑year, the overall increase in regional sales volume was driven by higher activity in Multnomah County, along with additional gains in Clackamas and Yamhill counties. These counties collectively tipped the scales, pushing the quarter to a 10.37% increase in total attached‑home sales.
Taken together, the monthly pattern shows a market responding predictably to improved conditions. Buyers returned gradually, then decisively, producing a strong finish to the quarter.
Sales Price
The bar chart below compares monthly average sales prices across the three months of Q1 for 2025 and Q1 2026.
Note: The y-axis starts at $400,000 to allow better examination of monthly differences.
Average sales prices declined across all three months of Q1 2026, and the pattern is both consistent and meaningful. January fell 4.75% year‑over‑year, February declined 5.60%, and March posted the steepest drop at 6.24%. While the magnitudes differ slightly, the direction is uniform: attached‑home prices were lower every month of the quarter compared to Q1 2025.
For buyers, this softening provided a genuine silver lining. Lower prices, paired with improved interest rates, helped push affordability sharply higher—one of the defining stories of the quarter. The attached segment flipped from strained to moderately affordable, and the monthly price declines played a direct role in that shift.
The softness was broad‑based. Every county except Hood River saw both average and median prices decline year‑over‑year. Hood River recorded only one attached sale, so its stability is not meaningful in a trend sense. The regional pattern reflects a tougher quarter for attached homes overall, and given that Washington County accounts for more than half of all attached closings, its slight year‑over‑year decline carries outsized influence. The ongoing Intel layoffs likely contributed to this pressure, adding a layer of economic uncertainty that nudged pricing expectations downward.
Even so, the segment remained active. Buyers responded predictably to improved affordability, and increased sales in Multnomah, Clackamas, and Yamhill counties helped offset Washington County’s slight decline. The result is a quarter where prices softened, affordability improved, and demand strengthened—an unusual but coherent combination that reflects the attached homes market’s multi-year trend of softening prices.
New Construction
The bar graph below shows monthly total attached homes sales in Q1 2026, with new construction volume nested within each bar to illustrate the portion of sales that were newly built.
The nested bar chart makes one point immediately clear: new construction is a defining feature of the attached‑home segment. Across Q1 2026, newly built homes accounted for 41.44% of all attached‑home closings, an unusually high share for any residential segment and fully consistent with attached homes having the lowest average age of the four major single-family housing categories.
The monthly pattern is also instructive. January and February delivered solid new‑construction activity, with 41 and 32 closings respectively—roughly one‑third to two‑fifths of all sales in each month. Then March surged. New‑construction closings jumped to 77, representing nearly 47% of all attached‑home sales that month.
Regionally, these figures underscore how central new construction is to the attached‑home ecosystem. The segment relies heavily on newly built supply to meet demand, and builders continue to deliver a substantial share of the product buyers ultimately purchase.
The bar graph below shows new construction sales broken out by county for Q1 2025 and Q1 2026.
The county‑level breakout highlights how unevenly new‑construction activity is distributed across the region and why the attached‑home segment continues to have the lowest average age of the four major housing categories.
Clackamas posted a modest gain, rising from 16 to 18 new‑construction closings (+12.50%). Washington County held essentially steady, dipping slightly from 91 to 90 (–1.10%). Multnomah, however, delivered the standout performance: new‑construction closings jumped from 24 to 40 (+66.67%), making it the fastest‑growing county in Q1 2026 for newly built attached homes. Yamhill added two new‑construction sales after recording none the prior year, while Columbia and Hood River remained at zero.
Even with Multnomah’s impressive growth, Washington County remains the structural center of new construction in the attached‑home segment. Its 90 closings represent 60% of all new‑construction activity—more than the remaining counties combined. This dominance is consistent with Washington County’s multi‑year pattern: it continues to favor new attached homes over new condos, and builders remain highly active in its suburban submarkets.
Regionally, the story is straightforward: new construction is not a supplemental source of inventory—it is a core driver of the attached‑home market. Q1 2026 reaffirmed that role with strong winter performance and a March surge, supported by notable gains in Multnomah and steady output from Washington County.
The table below shows new construction sales volume by dollar amount for Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
The following double bar chart provides the above information at a glance.
New‑construction dollar volume rose modestly at the regional level in Q1 2026, increasing 3.66% year‑over‑year. But beneath that headline, the counties moved in very different directions—and understanding those differences is essential to interpreting the segment accurately.
Clackamas is the clearest example of a compositional reset rather than a pricing decline. Even though new‑construction sales increased from 16 to 18, total dollar volume fell sharply. The reason is straightforward: Q1 2025 included two exceptionally high‑end attached homes in Lake Oswego, each selling for more than $1.7M. Nothing in Q1 2026 exceeded the mid‑$500Ks. With those two luxury sales gone, the average price dropped significantly, but the median moved only modestly, reflecting a shift toward smaller, more affordable homes rather than a collapse in values.
Multnomah’s story is much simpler. New‑construction closings jumped from 24 to 40, and dollar volume rose accordingly. This is a clean volume‑driven increase, consistent with the county’s broader surge in attached‑home activity and its growing share of the region’s new‑construction market.
Washington County presents the opposite dynamic: sales were essentially unchanged, yet dollar volume declined. This signals genuine price softening, not a change in product mix. Builders conceded more on original list prices, average and median prices fell, price‑per‑square‑foot declined, and market times lengthened. Given Washington County’s outsized role in the attached‑home segment—and the economic backdrop created by the Intel layoffs—this softening resulted in builders netting roughly $3M fewer dollars year‑over‑year.
Taken together, these county‑level dynamics explain why regional dollar volume still managed a modest increase. Multnomah’s growth offset Washington County’s softening, and Clackamas’s compositional reset simply returned the county to its typical mid‑market profile. The result is a quarter where new construction remained a central driver of the attached‑home ecosystem, even as pricing pressures and product shifts varied sharply by county.
The following map shows the distribution of new construction sales.
The map of new‑construction closings reinforces a pattern that has been consistent for years: attached‑home new construction is overwhelmingly an urban and suburban phenomenon. The clusters concentrate along the westside and southside growth corridors—places like Hillsboro, Beaverton, Tigard, Sherwood, and Happy Valley—with smaller pockets extending into Gresham and the inner eastside.
What stands out is how tightly new construction hugs existing infrastructure, employment centers, and established development patterns. These aren’t rural builds or fringe‑market experiments; they’re infill projects, master‑planned communities, and suburban expansions in areas already primed for attached‑home demand. The distribution mirrors the segment’s identity: younger housing stock, smaller lots, and builder activity concentrated where land availability and zoning make attached homes feasible.
This spatial pattern also aligns with the county‑level dynamics discussed earlier. Washington County’s dominance is visible in the dense westside clusters, Multnomah’s growth shows up in the eastside and inner‑Portland pockets, and Clackamas’s contributions appear in the Happy Valley corridor.
Cumulative Days on Market
The bar chart below compares average cumulative days on market (CDOM) across the three months of Q1 for 2025 and Q1 2026.
The bar chart comparing average cumulative days on market across Q1 shows a clear and consistent pattern: the first two months of 2026 moved faster than the prior year, and those gains more than offset the slight lengthening in March.
January improved from 84 to 77 days (–8.32%), and February followed the same trajectory, dropping from 92 to 85 days (–7.62%). These early‑quarter improvements reflect stronger buyer engagement and quicker decision cycles at a time when mortgage rates were trending downward—moving from 6.16% to 5.98%. While rates aren’t the only factor influencing market tempo, this alignment likely contributed to the faster absorption we observed in January–February.
March, by contrast, saw average CDOM rise from 74 to 80 days (+7.21%). This coincided with a noticeable rate reversal, with mortgage rates climbing up 6.38% by month‑end. That shift likely introduced a bit of buyer hesitation and modestly slowed absorption. The increase wasn’t large enough to erase the momentum established earlier in the quarter, but it did slow the segment down.
Taken together, Q1 2026 still moved faster overall. The segment benefited from quicker early‑quarter absorption, and the modest recalibration in March reflects a market responding to short‑term rate movement rather than signaling a broader slowdown.
HOA Dues
While not all attached homes are located in an HOA with mandatory dues, they are a defining feature of the attached homes residential market:
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
# of HOA Sales
260
279
+19 homes
Total Sales
328
362
+34 homes
% of Market
79.27%
77.07%
-2.77 pts
HOA dues count are sales reporting nonzero HOA dues. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
The Q1 data shows just how central HOA‑based living is to the attached‑home segment. Out of 362 sales in Q1 2026, 279 reported nonzero HOA dues, meaning more than three‑quarters of all attached‑home closings occurred within dues‑bearing communities.
The increase in HOA‑dues sales—from 260 to 279—reinforces the stability of this pattern. Attached homes continue to be built, marketed, and purchased within communities where shared maintenance, common‑area amenities, and community standards shape both monthly payment profiles and long‑term ownership costs. HOA dues remain a defining financial component of the segment, influencing affordability calculations and distinguishing attached homes from their detached counterparts, which have much lower dues—averaging about $70 per month in the Big Three counties—and only 26% of sales occurring within HOAs.
In short, the attached‑home market continues to operate as a dues‑anchored ecosystem—HOA communities aren’t the exception; they’re the norm.
The bar chart below compares average monthly HOA dues (for reporting sales) for Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 broken out by county:
The county‑level comparison of average monthly HOA dues shows a mix of modest declines, one notable increase, and two counties that are omitted from the bar chart due to little or no attached‑home HOA activity in the period. Columbia had only a single dues‑bearing sale in Q1 2025 and none in Q1 2026, while Hood River’s dues figures are based on extremely limited sales and therefore aren’t included in the visual.
Clackamas, Multnomah, and Yamhill all posted year‑over‑year declines, while Washington County saw an increase from $238.66 to $259.44 (+8.71%). These shifts are meaningful, but interpretation requires attention to reporting behavior—especially in counties with active new‑construction pipelines.
Multnomah’s decline from $246.69 to $210.49 (–14.68%) should be read cautiously. The county saw a strong boost in new‑construction sales in Q1 2026, and it’s common for new‑construction listings to report zero HOA dues in MLS when dues haven’t been finalized at the time of listing. This can temporarily depress the average even when underlying dues are stable. Washington County, by contrast, had steady new‑construction activity year‑over‑year, making its increase more reliable and less affected by non‑reporting.
Yamhill’s decline is modest and should also be interpreted cautiously due to a small number of sales. Clackamas remains stable, with only a slight decrease.
Taken together, the county‑level data reinforces a familiar pattern: HOA dues vary across the region, but accurate interpretation requires accounting for reporting dynamics—especially in markets with active new construction.
Miscellaneous Statistics & Standout Transactions
Here are some of the most notable outliers and extremes from the 2026 Portland Region attached homes residential market—numbers that illustrate the full range of the data and the extremes buyers and appraisers encounter.
Lowest Sales Price: $249,000—This home is located in Wilkes Portland neighborhood. The unit is 1,114 sq. ft. and has two bedrooms and two bathrooms. Photos of this property are currently available online.
Highest Sales Price: $1,175,000—This home is located in Hood River, Oregon. The unit is 1,819 sq. ft. and has three bedrooms and three bathrooms. This property also has the highest price per square foot for the quarter ($645.95). Photos of this property are currently available online.
Lowest Price Per Square Foot: $158.13—This home is located in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The unit is 1,992 sq. ft., has three bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms; it closed for $315,000. Photos of this property are currently available online.
Longest CDOM: 501 days—This home is located in the Northwest Heights Portland neighborhood. The unit is 1,431 sq. ft. and has two bedrooms and two bathrooms. Initially listed September 2024 for $450,000, it finally closed for $350,000 in late-February 2026. Photos of this property are currently available online.
Smallest Attached Home: 794 sq. ft.—This attached home is located in Newberg, Oregon. The one-bedroom, one-bathroom home is located in the 55+ community of Crestview Manor. Photos of this property are currently available online.
Largest Attached Home: 3,284 sq. ft.—The largest townhome of the quarter is located in West Linn, Oregon. The home has four bedrooms and 3.1 bathrooms. The unit closed for $897,500. Photos of this property are currently available online.
Highest Monthly HOA Dues: $793.00—This home is located in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The unit closed for $455,000 and is 1,314 sq. ft and has two bedrooms and two bathrooms. The HOA dues include a community pool, recreation facility as well as coverage of water, sewer, and exterior maintenance. Photos of this property are currently available online.
With the regional aggregate trends, graphs, monthly patterns, and notable outliers covered, the remainder of this update turns to a county-level breakdown. The following sections present year-over-year comparisons for each of the six counties in the Portland Region—Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Yamhill, Columbia, and Hood River. Each county snapshot includes key metrics, commentary on local drivers, and any segment-specific observations that help explain broader regional patterns.
Multnomah County Q1 2026 Stats
The table below summarizes key metrics for Multnomah County attached homes residential sales in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$28,855,250
$40,935,465
+41.86%
Average Price
$450,863
$430,900
-4.43%
Median Price
$410,000
$395,000
-3.66%
Avg SP/OLP
96.50%
97.17%
+0.70%
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$319.62
$294.07
-8.00%
Avg HOA Dues
$246.69
$210.49
-14.68%
Median HOA Dues
$187.00
$178.00
-4.81%
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.0566
0.0602
+6.41%
Avg Age (Yrs)
14.50
13.84
-4.54%
Avg CDOM
92.83
73.34
-21.00%
Avg Total SF
1,467
1,513
+3.12%
Total # of Sales
64
95
+48.44%
# of New Constr.
24
40
+66.67%
# of REOs
0
2
—
# of Short Sales
0
0
—
Average PABAI
98.92
119.88
+20.96 pts
# Affordable
36
72
+36 homes
% Affordable
56.25%
75.79%
+19.54 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (31 sales for Q1 2025 & 41 sales for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Multnomah County delivered a high‑volume quarter shaped overwhelmingly by new‑construction activity. Total dollar volume rose 41.86%, nearly proportional to the 48.44% increase in closed sales, confirming that the quarter’s strength came from more units selling, not higher prices.
Prices moved lower year‑over‑year despite slightly larger homes on slightly larger lots. Average price fell 4.43%, median price declined 3.66%, and average PPSF dropped 8.00%. This pattern reflects a clear compositional shift: new‑construction units averaged 1,350 square feet, compared with 1,631 square feet for resale units. Smaller homes enter the market at lower total prices even when their PPSF is strong, and Multnomah’s 40 new‑construction closings (up from 24) pulled the county’s pricing metrics downward.
Market tempo improved sharply. Average cumulative days on market fell from 92.83 to 73.34—a nearly 20‑day reduction. Builders tend to price new units to move, and the county’s elevated new‑construction share helped accelerate absorption. Sellers also gained a bit of ground relative to their initial list prices, with SP/OLP rising to 97.17%, indicating realistic initial pricing and responsive buyer demand.
HOA dues declined on both an average and median basis, but this drop is almost certainly illusory. New‑construction listings frequently report zero dues when HOA budgets are not finalized at the time of listing, and Multnomah’s surge in brand‑new inventory makes this reporting dynamic the most likely explanation for the decline.
Affordability expanded dramatically. The county’s PABAI rose to 119.88, and 75.79% of all sales qualified as affordable—more than three‑quarters of the market. This reflects both the influence of smaller, lower‑priced new‑construction units and the rate environment that supported stronger buyer access during the quarter. Builders are striving to meet the market where effective demand exists, and the Q1 delivery mix shows they were targeting price points buyers could actually reach.
Overall, Multnomah County’s Q1 2026 performance was defined by a large influx of smaller new‑construction homes, reshaping pricing, dues, affordability, and market tempo. The result was a fast‑moving, highly accessible quarter with strong buyer engagement and realistic seller pricing.
The following is a scatter plot of all Multnomah County attached homes sales in Q1 2026:
The scatter plot for Q1 2026 shows a market that is tightly concentrated in a very narrow price band. 76.84% of all Multnomah attached‑home sales closed between $300,000 and $500,000, which is an unusually compressed range compared with the detached‑home market. There is very little activity below $300,000 and only a small number of sales above $600,000, reinforcing just how centered this segment is around the mid‑market tiers.
The distribution is especially dense in the $350,000–$399,000 and $400,000–$449,000 brackets, which together account for more than half of all sales. The scatter reflects this visually: most points cluster in a tight vertical band, with only a few outliers pushing toward the upper end of the market.
The plot also shows a noticeable flurry of closings in the final stretch of March. At first glance, this might look like a demand‑side surge, but rates were climbing during that period—not the kind of environment that typically produces a sudden buyer rush. The timing instead reflects new‑construction deliveries closing out at quarter‑end, which becomes clear when isolating just the new‑construction sales.
When viewed alongside the main scatter, the new‑construction plot makes the pattern unmistakable: the late‑March cluster is a supply‑timed closing wave, not a rate‑driven spike in demand. Builders brought units online and pushed to finish the quarter strong, and those closings landed in a tight sequence at the end of March.
Together, the two scatters confirm a mid‑tier‑dominated market with minimal lower‑end activity, a thin upper tail, and a late‑quarter wave of new‑construction closings that helped lift overall volume.
The following map shows the distribution of new construction sales during Q1 2026:
The map of new‑construction sales shows a clear eastside concentration, and that pattern reflects the underlying development realities of Multnomah County. The eastside offers more flexible land availability, more accommodating zoning, and gentler topography, all of which support attached‑home projects at mid‑market price points. Builders can deliver units efficiently and at scale, and the result is the tight $300,000–$450,000 band seen in the new‑construction scatter.
The westside, by contrast, presents a very different development environment. Large portions of the westside are shaped by steep topography, constrained parcels, and higher‑priced neighborhoods where land costs and existing built form make attached‑home development less feasible. The economics simply don’t align with the mid‑tier price points where effective demand is strongest. As a result, new‑construction attached homes are far less common west of the Willamette, and the map reflects that imbalance clearly.
Together, the map and scatter plots show that new construction shaped not only the pricing and timing of Q1 2026, but also its spatial footprint—concentrated east of the river, aligned with the corridors where attached‑home development is most viable.
Washington County Q1 2026 Stats
The table below summarizes key metrics for Washington County attached homes residential sales in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$86,314,512
$80,863,943
-6.31%
Average Price
$459,120
$434,752
-5.31%
Median Price
$444,177
$425,000
-4.32%
Avg SP/OLP
97.55%
95.70%
-1.89%
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$289.69
$277.49
-4.21%
Avg HOA Dues
$238.66
$259.44
+8.71%
Median HOA Dues
$232.00
$248.00
+6.90%
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.0588
0.0623
+6.03%
Avg Age (Yrs)
13.84
13.98
+1.04%
Avg CDOM
76.13
86.90
+14.15%
Avg Total SF
1,609
1,588
-1.35%
Total # of Sales
188
186
-1.06%
# of New Constr.
91
90
-1.10%
# of REOs
0
0
—
# of Short Sales
0
0
—
Average PABAI
93.24
108.60
+15.36 pts
# Affordable
57
126
+69 homes
% Affordable
30.32%
67.74%
+37.42 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (171 sales for Q1 2025 & 176 sales for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Washington County’s attached‑home market softened in Q1 2026, and the declines are genuine. Withtotal sales down by only two homes and new‑construction volume essentially unchanged (91 → 90), the year‑over‑year comparison reflects real demand‑side cooling rather than a shift in unit mix. Average price, median price, SP/OLP, and PPSF all moved lower, while CDOM rose by about ten days—a pattern consistent with buyers becoming more cautious. The ongoing fallout from the Intel layoffs likely contributed to this softer environment, especially in the resale segment.
Despite only two fewer sales, sellers took in $5.45 million less this quarter compared to last year. That’s a meaningful drop in total dollar volume, and it underscores how broad the softening was: lower prices, lower PPSF, and slightly weaker negotiation outcomes all combined to pull revenue down.
Affordability, however, surged. More than two thirds of the market (67.74%) qualified as affordable under the PABAI framework, up from just 30.32% a year earlier. PABAI jumped by 37.42 points, reflecting how rate movements and softer pricing intersected to dramatically expand buyer qualification. And because new‑construction volume was nearly identical year over year, the usual issue of under‑reported HOA dues is effectively a wash—meaning the affordability trend is directionally reliable for Washington County, even though new‑construction dues remain understated in RMLS.
A side‑by‑side look at new construction versus resale in Q1 2026 shows a market that is almost perfectly split by both dollar volume and number of sales. New homes delivered slightly more square footage and larger lots, but the median price difference between new ($449,945) and resale ($410,500) was only about $40,000, indicating that Washington County does not impose a large premium for new attached homes.
Overall, Washington County’s attached‑home segment in Q1 2026 reflects a stable mix, softer demand, expanded affordability, and a nearly even split between new and resale activity. The declines are real, the affordability gains are meaningful, and the market’s performance is best understood as a demand‑side cooling rather than a structural or compositional shift.
The following is a scatter plot of all Washington County sales in Q1 2026:
The scatter plot shows a market operating within an exceptionally tight price band. Nearly the entire quarter’s activity falls between $300,000 and $500,000, and more than half the market (54.84%) is concentrated in the $350,000–$449,999 range. This mid‑tier clustering is the defining feature of Washington County’s attached‑home segment in Q1 2026, and the scatter makes it visually unmistakable: a dense horizontal band with very few outliers above $550,000 and almost nothing below $300,000.
There is a modest uptick in closings during March, reflecting two overlapping dynamics. First, Washington County saw a slight increase in new‑construction closings toward the end of the quarter, which naturally produces a small late‑March cluster. Second, the attached‑home market typically warms as spring approaches, and the scatter shows that familiar seasonal lift. Even so, the March activity remains firmly within the same mid‑tier band, reinforcing how stable and price‑disciplined the segment was throughout Q1.
Overall, the scatter confirms a highly concentrated mid‑market, minimal lower‑end activity, and only a thin upper tail. Washington County’s attached‑home market in Q1 2026 operated within one of the narrowest price distributions in the region, and the scatter plot visually mirrors the softness and affordability expansion seen in the county‑level metrics.
The following map shows the distribution of new construction sales during Q1 2026:
The new‑construction map for Washington County shows a development pattern that’s almost textbook for the westside: clusters of new attached‑home activity sitting right at the edges of cities, aligned with the urban growth boundary (UGB). The visual cue is unmistakable—the red markers concentrate precisely where the map transitions from urban coloration into green, signaling rural reserve, agricultural land, or forested areas. That boundary line is where Washington County’s attached‑home development has historically been most viable, and Q1 2026 continues that pattern.
Most of the new‑construction activity appears around Hillsboro, Aloha, Cornelius, and Forest Grove, with additional pockets near Bethany and South Beaverton. These are areas where land is still assemblable, topography is gentle, and zoning supports higher‑density formats. Builders gravitate to these UGB‑adjacent zones because they offer the combination of flat terrain, infrastructure access, and development‑friendly entitlements needed to deliver attached homes at mid‑tier price points.
What’s equally notable is where new construction isn’t happening. The interior of established neighborhoods—Cedar Hills, Sexton Mountain, Bull Mountain, central Beaverton—shows very few markers. These areas have higher land costs, fragmented parcels, and steeper topography in places, all of which make attached‑home development more difficult. The map’s pattern reflects that reality: new construction hugs the green edges rather than filling in the urban core.
Clackamas County Q1 2026 Stats
The table below summarizes key metrics for Clackamas County attached homes residential sales in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$32,731,115
$33,201,588
+1.44%
Average Price
$536,576
$495,546
-7.65%
Median Price
$467,500
$440,000
-5.88%
Avg SP/OLP
97.43%
96.35%
-1.11%
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$299.00
$294.75
-1.42%
Avg HOA Dues
$286.20
$286.19
-0.00%
Median HOA Dues
$225.50
$243.00
+7.76%
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.07
0.08
+6.16%
Avg Age (Yrs)
14.56
17.91
+23.03%
Avg CDOM
106.95
76.82
-28.17%
Avg Total SF
1,762
1,692
-3.98%
Total # of Sales
61
67
+9.84%
# of New Constr.
16
18
+12.50%
# of REOs
0
0
—
# of Short Sales
0
0
—
Average PABAI
84.89
97.72
+12.83 pts
# Affordable
14
39
+25 homes
% Affordable
22.95%
58.21%
+35.26 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (50 sales for Q1 2025 & 56 sales for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Clackamas County posted a mixed performance in Q1 2026, with rising sales activity but clear price erosion. Total sales increased nearly 10% year over year (61 → 67), yet total dollar volume rose only 1.44%, meaning sellers collectively earned just $470,473 more than last year. That gap between unit growth and revenue growth is the clearest sign of softening prices: average price fell 7.65%, median price declined 5.88%, and PPSF slipped modestly. Some of this decline reflects a shift toward smaller units—average total square footage dropped by nearly 4%—but the price reductions exceed what size alone would explain, indicating genuine market cooling.
Affordability expanded sharply, rising from 22.95% to 58.21%, yet Clackamas still remains the least affordable of the three major counties. Larger average square footage, higher HOA dues, and an older attached‑home stock all contribute to this structural reality. The average age of sold units jumped from 14.6 to 17.9 years, reinforcing that Clackamas has fewer new attached‑home projects and a more mature inventory profile compared with Multnomah and Washington counties.
One of the more notable improvements was in market efficiency: CDOM fell dramatically, dropping from 107 days to 77 days. Even with lower prices, homes sold significantly faster, suggesting sellers adjusted expectations and buyers responded to more realistic pricing. This is consistent with a market that is softening but still liquid.
A closer look at new construction versus resale in Q1 2026 shows that builders and resale sellers operated in distinctly different segments. New construction accounted for 18 sales, while resale represented 49, and the two cohorts diverged sharply in size. New homes averaged 1,572 sq. ft., compared with 1,736 sq. ft. for resale—a 164 sq. ft. difference that explains most of the pricing gap. Builders are clearly delivering smaller new units to keep average prices down—1,920 sq. ft. in Q1 2025 to 1,572 sq. ft. in Q1 2026—and when adjusting for square footage, the new‑construction premium essentially disappears. PPSF is nearly identical between the two groups, and a back‑of‑the‑envelope calculation shows that equal‑sized units would have nearly the same implied value.
Overall, Clackamas County’s attached‑home market in Q1 2026 reflects higher sales activity, lower prices, faster absorption, and a meaningful shift toward smaller new‑construction units. The county remains the least affordable of the Big Three, but the quarter shows a market adjusting efficiently to softer demand and delivering product that aligns with buyer qualification thresholds.
The following is a scatter plot of all Clackamas County sales in Q1 2026:
The scatter plot for Clackamas County shows a price distribution that is both tightly concentrated in the mid‑market and meaningfully stretched into the upper tiers, a pattern that distinguishes the county from both Multnomah and Washington. The densest portion of the quarter’s activity sits between $400,000 and $449,999, and when combined with the adjacent $450,000–$499,999 tier, these two ranges account for nearly three‑quarters of all sales. This narrow mid‑market band is the defining feature of Clackamas attached‑home pricing in Q1 2026.
What’s equally notable is what the scatter doesn’t show: almost no activity below $350,000. Only one sale fell into the 300–349K range, and nothing transacted below that. This absence of lower‑priced units is a structural characteristic of Clackamas County’s attached‑home stock—larger average square footage, higher HOA dues, and older inventory all push the market upward compared with the other major counties. The scatter makes this visually obvious: the lower end is essentially missing.
Above the mid‑market band, Clackamas shows a meaningful upper tail. Several sales closed between $600,000 and $1,000,000, including one above $950,000. This upper‑tier activity is far more pronounced than in Washington County, where attached‑home pricing is tightly uniform and rarely reaches these levels. In contrast, Clackamas supports a wider range of attached‑home formats and sizes, and the scatter reflects that diversity with a broader vertical spread.
Taken together, the scatter plot illustrates why Clackamas remains the least affordable of the Big Three counties. While all three counties struggle to produce units under $300,000, Multnomah’s densest band sits lower (350–399K), and Washington has substantial activity in the 300–399K range. Clackamas, by contrast, clusters higher and shows more upper‑tier sales, reinforcing the county’s structurally elevated pricing profile.
The following map shows the distribution of new construction sales during Q1 2026:
The new‑construction map for Clackamas County shows a pattern that’s immediately recognizable once you’ve looked at Multnomah and Washington: activity generally clusters right at or just inside the edges of major cities, where zoning, infrastructure, and parcel configuration make attached‑home development feasible. Every red marker sits in or near an incorporated area—Happy Valley, Milwaukie, Oregon City—and even the outlier in Molalla is still within the city’s built‑up footprint rather than in rural reserve or agricultural land. This is the same development logic we saw in Washington County, but expressed through Clackamas’ geography.
Yamhill County Q1 2026 Stats
The table below summarizes key metrics for Yamhill County attached homes residential sales in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$1,996,000
$4,026,200
+101.71%
Average Price
$399,200
$366,018
-8.31%
Median Price
$400,000
$377,900
-5.53%
Avg SP/OLP
100.22%
97.45%
-2.77%
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$323.68
$311.36
-3.81%
Avg HOA Dues
$97.17
$87.92
-9.52%
Median HOA Dues
$65.00
$45.00
-30.77%
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.09
0.09
-1.65%
Avg Age (Yrs)
25.60
24.91
-2.70%
Avg CDOM
23.20
76.91
+231.50%
Avg Total SF
1,262
1,201
-4.81%
Total # of Sales
5
11
+120.00%
# of New Constr.
0
2
—
# of REOs
0
0
—
# of Short Sales
0
0
—
# Affordable
4
11
+7 homes
% Affordable
80.00%
100.00%
+20.00 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (4 sales for Q1 2025 & 5 sales for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Yamhill County saw a sharp increase in attached‑home activity in Q1 2026, though the small sample size limits interpretation. Total sales rose from 5 to 11, a 120% increase, and total dollar volume more than doubled, netting sellers an additional $2.03M. With only a handful of transactions in each quarter, this jump reflects the addition of a few more closings rather than a structural shift in the market.
Two new‑construction units closed during the quarter, both from the same small infill project in Lafayette. This was the only new‑construction activity in the county for Q1 2026.
Overall, Yamhill County’s attached‑home market remains extremely low‑volume, and the quarter’s results reflect the sensitivity of small datasets to individual sales. The doubling of dollar volume and sales count is notable, but not indicative of a broader trend. The presence of two new units in Lafayette is the only structural change worth noting; otherwise, the quarter’s metrics should be interpreted cautiously due to limited activity.
The following is a scatter plot of all Yamhill County sales in Q1 2026:
Most activity is concentrated between $350,000 to under $450,000.
Columbia County Q1 2026 Stats
The table below summarizes key metrics for Columbia County attached homes residential sales in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$2,811,205
$769,000
-72.65%
Average Price
$401,601
$384,500
-4.26%
Median Price
$405,000
$384,500
-5.06%
Avg SP/OLP
95.55%
98.81%
+3.41%
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$248.84
$246.68
-0.87%
Avg HOA Dues
$21.25
—
—
Median HOA Dues
$21.25
—
—
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.08
0.08
+6.25%
Avg Age (Yrs)
19.86
27.00
+35.97%
Avg CDOM
45.86
13.00
-71.65%
Avg Total SF
1,633
1,560
-4.45%
Total # of Sales
7
2
-71.43%
# of New Constr.
0
0
—
# of REOs
0
0
—
# of Short Sales
0
0
—
# Affordable
6
2
-4 homes
% Affordable
85.71%
100.00%
+14.29 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (2 sales for Q1 2025 & 0 sales for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Columbia County had very limited attached‑home activity in Q1 2026, with only two sales recorded for the quarter. This represents a decline of five sales year‑over‑year, and total dollar volume fell accordingly—from $2.81M to $769,000, a reduction of $2.04M. With such a small dataset, these changes reflect the absence of a few transactions rather than any meaningful shift in market conditions. There were no new‑construction units this quarter.
Overall, Columbia County’s attached‑home market remains extremely low‑volume, and the quarter’s results should be interpreted cautiously. The decline in sales and dollar volume is notable, but not indicative of a structural change; it simply reflects the sensitivity of small datasets to individual transactions.
Hood River County Q1 2026 Stats
The table below summarizes key metrics for Hood River County attached homes residential sales in Q1 2026 compared with Q1 2025.
Category
Q1 2025
Q1 2026
Change
Total $ Volume
$1,485,000
$1,175,000
-20.88%
Average Price
$495,000
$1,175,000
+137.37%
Median Price
$460,000
$1,175,000
+155.43%
Avg SP/OLP
95.85%
106.82%
+11.44%
Avg PPSF (TSF)
$356.60
$645.95
+81.14%
Avg HOA Dues
$36.46
$401.91
+1002.48%
Median HOA Dues
$36.46
$401.91
+1002.48%
Avg Lot Size (ac)
0.0533
0.0300
-43.78%
Avg Age (Yrs)
12.67
21.00
+65.79%
Avg CDOM
114.00
25.00
-78.07%
Avg Total SF
1,501
1,819
+21.16%
Total # of Sales
3
1
-66.67%
# of New Constr.
0
0
—
# of REOs
0
0
—
# of Short Sales
0
0
—
# Affordable
1
0
-1 home
% Affordable
33.33%
0.00%
-33.33 pts
Note: The calculated average HOA dues is for sales reporting nonzero HOA dues (2 sales for Q1 2025 & 1 sale for Q1 2026). All other metrics use the full dataset for each quarter. Single-Family Attached Residential | Q1 2025 & Q1 2026 Data: RMLS | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
Hood River County had only one attached‑home sale in Q1 2026, down from three the year before. With such a small dataset, year‑over‑year comparisons are not meaningful. Total dollar volume declined from $1.49M to $1.18M, a net difference of $310,000. There were no new‑construction units this quarter.
Overall, Hood River County’s attached‑home market remains extremely low‑volume, and the quarter’s results should be interpreted cautiously. The decline in sales and dollar volume is notable, but not indicative of a structural change; it simply reflects the sensitivity of small datasets to individual transactions.
Closing Thoughts
Q1 2026 showed a region adjusting through lower prices, slightly improved interest rates, and builder‑driven shifts in product size, all of which combined to make attached homes more accessible to buyers. With softer pricing, overall activity increased: regional sales rose 10%, and total dollar volume edged up 4.4%, signaling steady demand as buyers responded to more attainable price points.
Affordability was the standout change. The share of affordable attached‑home sales jumped from 20% to 61%, adding 155 more affordable units compared with last year. This improvement was driven primarily by lower prices, better mortgage rates, and a clear builder pivot toward smaller units in counties like Washington and Clackamas. New construction rose 14.5%, and much of that growth came from projects intentionally designed to meet buyer qualification thresholds.
The county distribution remained familiar: Washington County accounted for just over half of all attached‑home sales, Multnomah contributed about a quarter, and Clackamas nearly a fifth. The remaining counties—Yamhill, Columbia, and Hood River—continued to show extremely low volumes, where individual sales can shift averages dramatically and trend analysis is not meaningful.
Taken together, the quarter reflects a market that is re‑calibrating rather than contracting. Prices softened, affordability expanded, and builders adapted quickly to buyer needs.
What trends do you expect to see in Q2 2026? I’d love to hear your thoughts—feel free to reply here or reach out directly.
Sources & Further Reading
All data presented in this quarterly update is sourced directly from RMLS and has been subjected to a rigorous cleaning and validation process to ensure reliability for attached homes residential analysis in the six-county Portland Region. The trends, comparisons, and commentary are the result of original appraisal expertise and independent analysis—not aggregated from secondary sources or news summaries.
External Obsolescence in Hillsboro — Residential Market Response to Intel’s 2024–2025 Workforce Reductions: Portland Appraisal Blog
Coda
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Are you an agent in Portland who wonders why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraiser methodology?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
At today’s 6.49% mortgage rate, the monthly principal‑and‑interest payment on a Q1 2026 Portland Region median-priced detached home ($580,000) with 20% down is $2,930, up from $2,776 at February’s low. Lifetime interest rises to $590,708, and repricing all Q1 loans at today’s rate adds $156M in regional interest.
What Happened This Week
Mortgage rates moved higher this week, with the 30‑year fixed returning to 6.49%—a 6 bps increase from last week and sitting very close to the year‑to‑date highs. The broader 2026 pattern remains intact: rates bottomed on February 26th, climbed sharply through early April, cooled briefly, and then resumed their upward drift beginning April 23. With this week’s move, we remain near the top of the 2026 range, and the past seven weeks have been defined by a narrow, high‑pressure band of rate movement that had been drifting downward but snapped upward this week, breaking the short‑term pattern.
Affordability remains strained at these elevated levels. A 6 bps increase carries weight when rates are this high, and monthly payments continue to hover near their most challenging point of the year. As the charts below show, today’s rate sits just under the ceiling of the year‑to‑date range, and the PABAI continues to reflect the compounding affordability pressure facing buyers across the Portland Region.
Mortgage Rate Context
Long‑Run View (Since 2000)
The long‑run chart shows how today’s rate fits into a 25‑year history of mortgage cycles. The early 2000s sat in the 6–8% range, the post‑Great Recession era brought a decade of unusually low rates, and the pandemic period pushed borrowing costs to historic lows. Years after leaving that ultra‑low‑rate environment, the market continues to adjust to more difficult financing constraints, and today’s 6.49% reflects that ongoing shift. With this week’s jump, rates remain elevated in a long‑term context, and affordability continues to be shaped by the same structural pressures highlighted in the medium‑run and short‑run views.
Medium‑Run View (Since COVID)
The COVID‑era chart highlights the dramatic rate compression of 2020–2021, the rapid surge of 2022, and the choppy plateau that has defined the past two years. Rates have been oscillating between roughly 6% and 7% since mid‑2023, and today’s 6.49% sits near the middle of that band. Volatility has cooled compared to 2022, but the medium‑run trend remains one of elevated and persistent borrowing costs, with the market continuing to adjust to structurally higher financing conditions across the Portland Region.
Short‑Run View (2026 YTD)
The year‑to‑date chart shows the full shape of the 2026 cycle: a clear bottom at 5.98% on February 26th, a sharp rise into early April, a brief cooldown, and a renewed climb that pushed rates to 6.53% in late May—the highest level of the year. This week’s reading of 6.49% brings us just below that peak, and affordability remains near its weakest point of 2026. This short‑run pattern is the most relevant for buyers today, as it directly shapes monthly payments and qualifying power across the Portland Region.
Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI)
What PABAI Measures
The Portland Appraisal Blog Affordability Index (PABAI) measures how home close prices compare to what a median‑income household can qualify for under standard lending assumptions (HUD Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA median income, 20% down, and a 28% DTI for principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues).
Unlike national affordability indices, PABAI is built from actual RMLS transactions rather than a single hypothetical price point. It computes an affordability ratio for every closed sale in the Portland Region during Q1 2026 and then averages those results—that average is the reported PABAI. Each housing segment—detached, attached, condos, and manufactured—is calculated separately, ensuring that segment‑specific dynamics are preserved rather than blended together. This approach produces far more precise, locally grounded insights into Portland‑area affordability and avoids the distortions that occur when fundamentally different housing types are combined into a single regional metric.
A PABAI of 100 means the market is exactly affordable at that income level (the Q1 2026 HUD median MSA income was $124,100 for a family of four). Values above 100 indicate excess qualifying capacity (more affordable), while values below 100 indicate a shortfall (strained affordability). Full methodology and the interpretation scale are available on the PABAI explainer page.
PABAI Range
Interpretation
120+
Strongly Affordable
100–119
Moderately Affordable
80–99
Strained
Below 80
Severely Constrained
Q1 2026: Actual vs. Constant‑Rate Affordability
The Q1 chart compares two versions of PABAI: one using actual weekly mortgage rates, and one using today’s rate (6.49%) as a constant. Because the constant‑rate line uses a rate near the top of the 2026 range, it naturally sits below the actual‑rate line for most of the quarter. That part isn’t the story.
The key insight is the size and behavior of the gap between the two lines. Early in the quarter, actual rates were meaningfully lower than today’s 6.49% level, giving buyers more qualifying power than a flat‑rate environment would suggest. But as rates climbed through March and into April, the two lines began to converge—a visual confirmation of how persistent rate increases eroded affordability heading into spring. Today’s 6.49% rate keeps the constant‑rate line very close to the actual‑rate line at the end of Q1, reflecting the tightening affordability conditions that carried into mid‑ and late‑spring across the Portland Region.
Structural Unaffordability and the Seasonal Pattern
Detached homes in the Portland Region remain structurally unaffordable to a household earning the HUD median MSA income. PABAI has been below 100 for years, and Q1 2026 continues that pattern. What the chart makes clear is that winter remains the best window for buyers on tight qualifying budgets: affordability improves when rates soften and seasonal pricing cools. As spring approaches, both rates and prices firm up, and affordability reliably compresses.
With the 30‑year fixed now sitting near the highest levels of 2026, the convergence of the two PABAI lines at the end of the quarter reflects the same reality: rising rates have pushed qualifying costs to their weakest point of the year, and the early‑year affordability advantage has largely evaporated. Today’s 6.49% reading keeps affordability firmly in the strained range, underscoring how sensitive the market remains to even small rate movements.
Affordability Snapshot (This Week)
Q1 2026 Affordability Recomputed at Today’s Rate
The table below shows how Q1 2026 affordability metrics change when all 3,349 detached sales are recalculated at this week’s 6.49% rate. This is the clearest way to see how rising rates reshape qualifying power, housing burden, and the share of homes accessible to a median‑income household.
Because today’s rate sits near the top of the 2026 range, the recomputed metrics show a meaningful deterioration in affordability relative to the actual Q1 environment. Required income rises, housing burden increases, and the number of homes affordable to a median‑income household falls sharply—a direct reflection of how even small rate increases compound at elevated levels.
Taken together, these metrics show how quickly affordability erodes when rates rise into the mid‑6% range. The drop in Average PABAI from 85.45 to 82.69 may look modest at first glance, but it represents a meaningful tightening of qualifying power across the entire detached market. Required income rises to roughly $150,100, widening the gap between what a median‑income household earns and what the market demands. That shortfall now approaches 21%, a reminder that the typical Portland household remains well outside traditional affordability thresholds defined in the PABAI framework.
The payment side tells the same story. Recomputing Q1 sales at today’s rate pushes the average monthly mortgage obligation up by about $130, which may seem incremental on a monthly basis but compounds sharply over a 30‑year horizon. More importantly, the higher rate pushes the average front‑end DTI from 38.03% to 39.28%, a level that would be considered stretched even in more forgiving underwriting environments. These shifts are not abstract; they directly shape who can buy, what they can buy, and how competitive they can be in the Portland Region.
The Buyer‑Side Impact
The most visible consequence of these changes is the shrinking pool of homes accessible to a median‑income household. Under actual Q1 2026 rates, 967 detached homes were affordable; at today’s 6.49% rate, that number falls to 844. In percentage terms, the share of the market within reach drops from 28.9% to 25.2%—a loss of over three and a half percentage points in a single recalculation. This is the practical expression of rising rates: fewer viable options, tighter qualifying margins, and a market that becomes increasingly selective about who can participate.
For buyers, the experience varies by circumstance but the direction is the same. Households with limited flexibility feel the tightening most acutely, as even small rate movements can eliminate entire segments of the market. Move‑up buyers face a widening payment gap between their current home and the next one, making the trade‑up calculus more difficult unless equity is substantial. Cash buyers, by contrast, gain relative leverage as financed demand thins—though that advantage is uneven across price tiers.
Across all buyer types, the message is consistent: rising rates are reshaping the market in real time, and the affordability landscape at a 6.49% mortgage rate is meaningfully different from the one buyers faced just a few months ago. The shift is incremental week to week, but cumulative in effect—a defining feature of today’s strained affordability environment.
The Seller‑Side Impact
Rising rates don’t just reshape the buyer experience—they influence seller outcomes as well. In the Q1 2026 detached market, cumulative days on market (CDOM) increased 11.27%, and the current rate environment suggests that upward pressure on market times may persist. As affordability tightens and the pool of qualified buyers shrinks, homes that would have moved quickly in a lower‑rate environment may begin to sit longer, particularly in segments where pricing is already stretched.
Today’s 6.49% rate keeps financing conditions near the most challenging levels of 2026, reinforcing the same dynamic: fewer qualified buyers, more selective demand, and a market where pricing precision matters. This doesn’t imply an abrupt market slowdown, but it does mean sellers should expect a more deliberate buyer pool and prepare for longer market times—especially in higher‑priced tiers where rate sensitivity is most acute.
TIP: Total Interest Paid — Why Small Rate Moves Matter
Total Interest Paid (TIP) is one of the clearest ways to understand how mortgage rates shape long‑run affordability. While buyers shop based on monthly payment, the lifetime cost of borrowing moves far more dramatically than the payment itself. Even small rate changes can add—or remove—tens of thousands of dollars in interest over the life of a loan.
At today’s 6.49% rate, the lifetime interest on a standard Portland‑area purchase sits far above the levels buyers saw during the pandemic and meaningfully higher than the early‑March lows of this year. The difference between a 5.98% environment and a 6.49% environment may feel subtle on a monthly basis, but over 30 years it compounds into a substantial increase in total repayment—the kind of shift that materially affects long‑run household finances in the Portland Region.
This is why TIP matters: it captures the hidden cost of rising rates. Buyers feel the payment, but the long‑run financial burden is embedded in the interest curve. As the charts below show, the 2026 rate path has pushed TIP to some of the highest levels of the year, even as the monthly payment has moved more gradually. The cumulative effect is what reshapes affordability—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing TIP across different rate scenarios.
2026 YTD Total Interest Paid
Note: The y-axis starts at $500,000 to allow better examination of monthly differences.
The 2026 YTD TIP chart shows how sharply lifetime borrowing costs have moved as rates climbed through the first half of the year. These calculations are based on the total interest a buyer would pay on the Q1 2026 Portland median‑priced home of $580,000, assuming a 20% down payment and applying the rate effective in each week. This isolates the impact of rate movements alone, holding price and loan structure constant.
The low point came on February 26th, when a 5.98% mortgage rate produced a total interest burden of $535,342. As rates rose through March and into late May, TIP increased steadily, reaching a year‑to‑date high of $595,104 at the 6.53% rate on May 28th—a swing of nearly $60,000 in lifetime interest in just three months, driven entirely by rate movement.
This week’s 6.49% rate pulls TIP down slightly from the YTD high: the total interest burden at today’s rate is $590,708, a modest improvement but still among the highest readings of the year. The shape of the chart makes the pattern unmistakable—at today’s price levels, even small rate changes translate into large long‑run cost differences. Buyers feel the monthly payment, but the lifetime interest curve is where the true financial impact of rising rates becomes visible, especially when comparing TIP across different rate environments.
TIP per $1 Borrowed
The TIP‑per‑$1 chart shows how much interest a buyer pays for every dollar borrowed at different mortgage rates. This is the clearest way to visualize the rate sensitivity of long‑run borrowing costs. At the year‑to‑date low of 5.98%, each dollar borrowed generated about $1.1538 in interest over the life of the loan. As rates climbed through the spring, that figure rose steadily, reaching $1.2826 at the late‑May peak of 6.53%.
Today’s 6.49% rate places the cost at $1.2731 per $1 borrowed, a slight improvement from the peak but still near the highest levels of the year. The line makes the pattern clear: once rates move into the mid‑6% range, each additional uptick adds meaningfully more lifetime interest—a dynamic that becomes especially clear when comparing rate environments side by side.
Regional Interest Delta (RID)
The Regional Interest Delta (RID) models how much total lifetime interest the Portland Region’s Q1 detached‑home buyers would collectively pay when mortgage rates shift. To keep the metric consistent, RID assumes that all 3,349 Q1 detached sales were financed under standard 20%‑down, 30‑year conventional underwriting, even though the actual dataset includes cash purchases and loans under FHA, VA, jumbo, and other programs. Rates are matched to each home’s close date to reflect the real timing of rate movements, but individual buyers may have locked slightly different rates depending on their specific loan terms. This approach provides a clean, apples‑to‑apples way to measure how rate changes affect the region’s total interest burden.
Using those actual matched rates, the region’s Q1 2026 pipeline will generate $2,091,901,976 in lifetime interest. Recomputing the same loans at today’s 6.49% rate increases the total to $2,248,407,532. The difference—the RID—is $156,505,556 in additional lifetime interest.
To put that number in perspective: the hollywoodHUB affordable‑housing development cost roughly $152 million to build. A single rate shift—applied across one quarter’s mortgage activity—now produces a lifetime interest delta exceeding the scale of a major regional housing project. This week’s RID represents a nine‑figure increase in long‑run borrowing costs driven solely by rate movement.
RID makes the scale of rate changes unmistakable. What looks like a modest shift at the household level becomes a region‑wide financial impact when applied across thousands of loans—a reminder of how sensitive the Portland market remains to even small movements in the 30‑year fixed.
Payment Delta
The Payment Delta shows how monthly affordability shifts as mortgage rates move. Using the Q1 2026 Portland median‑priced home of $580,000 with a 20% down payment, the monthly principal‑and‑interest payment changes meaningfully even with small rate movements.
Date
Rate
Monthly P&I
Pmt Delta
Feb 26, 2026
5.98%
$2,775.95
—
May 28, 2026
6.53%
$2,941.96
$166.01
July 9, 2026
6.49%
$2,929.74
$153.79
Payment Delta reflects the change from the year‑to‑date low on February 26. Monthly payment for home using median Q1 2026 price ($580,000) and 20% down. Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) Data: Freddie Mac | PortlandAppraisalBlog.com
From the YTD low to the late‑May peak, the monthly payment increased by about $166, and today’s payment remains nearly $154 higher than the February low.
While the Payment Delta is smaller in scale than the lifetime interest changes shown in TIP and RID, it is the number buyers feel most immediately. For households shopping at the lower end of the market, even a $150–$175 shift can meaningfully affect qualifying ratios, required down payment, or even which housing types remain viable—such as moving from detached homes to attached or condos. These adjustments often matter more for affordability‑sensitive buyers than for the broader market.
Closing Thoughts
The story of this week is straightforward: mortgage rates remain elevated, and the effects are visible across every major affordability metric. The PABAI continues to signal structural strain for median‑income households, and the recalculated Q1 data shows how even modest rate movements reshape qualifying power, monthly payments, and the share of homes within reach. The TIP and RID visuals make the pattern clear: higher rates don’t just affect individual buyers—they reshape the long‑run financial burden carried across the entire region.
For buyers, the takeaway is that financing conditions remain tight as we move into early summer. Winter continues to offer the best affordability window, but today’s rate environment means households on the margin feel pressure sooner and more sharply than in prior years. Even a $150‑range shift in the Payment Delta can influence qualifying ratios, required down payment, or which housing types remain viable—including whether buyers need to consider attached homes or condos instead of detached options.
For sellers, the implications are more subtle but no less real. The Q1 2026 detached market saw CDOM rise more than 11%, and the current rate backdrop suggests that upward pressure on market times may persist. A smaller pool of qualified buyers and higher monthly payments can translate into longer exposure, especially for homes priced aggressively or positioned in segments where affordability is already stretched. Pricing discipline and realistic expectations matter more in this environment than they did during the ultra‑low‑rate era.
As always, the Portland market adapts—sometimes quickly, sometimes reluctantly—but the direction of travel is clear. Higher rates are reshaping both sides of the transaction, and the early summer of 2026 is operating under some of the most constrained financing conditions we’ve seen this year.
Sources & Further Reading
All data presented in this weekly mortgage rate update is based on the Q1 2026 detached homes segment. The data is sourced directly from RMLS and has been subjected to rigorous cleaning and validation processes to ensure reliability for detached single-family residential analysis in the six-county Portland Region. The trends, comparisons, and commentary are the result of original appraisal expertise and independent analysis—not aggregated from secondary sources or news summaries.
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®): Dataset
Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.
Are you an agent in Portland who wonders why appraisers always do “x”?
A homeowner with questions about appraiser methodology?
If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.
And if you’re in need of appraisal services in Portland or anywhere in the Portland Region, we’d be glad to assist.
Portland Appraisal Blog 