Tag: Portland Metro

National Overview & Oregon Statewide Performance

On November 25th, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its Q3 2025 House Price Index (HPI). Nationally, home prices rose 0.2% quarter‑over‑quarter, and 2.2% year‑over‑year, reflecting a cooling but still positive trajectory across most regions.

Oregon posted +0.31% annual appreciation, ranking 45th nationally, with a –0.16% quarterly decline. These subdued figures mirror the broader West Coast trend: Washington registered +1.37% YoY, while California slipped –0.62% YoY. Oregon’s modest growth reflects a market in balance—neither surging nor contracting sharply.

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro MSA

In the “Purchase-only” FHFA index, the seven‑county Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA outperformed the statewide average slightly, recording +0.16% quarterly growth and +1.51% annual appreciation (” Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal” category). This MSA includes:

• Oregon counties: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill.
• Washington counties: Clark and Skamania.

The inclusion of Clark County (Vancouver metro) is significant. Its size and activity often moderate or amplify Oregon‑centric trends, making the FHFA MSA lens broader than the Oregon‑only focus used in our local reporting.

In the “All-transactions” FHFA index, the values are similar but slightly different, recording -0.36% quarterly decline and +1.91% annual appreciation. This places the Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA 167th among all reporting MSAs.

Comparison with Our Six-County Oregon Focus

In our Q3 2025 Portland region market update (covering Columbia, Clackamas, Hood River, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill), we noted:

• Median closed price flat at $600,000.
• Cumulative days on market up to 52 (a 13%+ increase).
• Sales volume essentially unchanged.

The FHFA’s +1.51% YoY for the seven‑county MSA aligns directionally with this stability but reflects slightly stronger performance due to Clark County’s contribution. When Clark and Skamania are excluded, the Oregon counties track closely with our reported flat medians and lengthening market times.

Methodology Matters: How FHFA Builds the HPI

The FHFA HPI is not just another dataset—it’s one of the most authoritative measures of U.S. housing trends. Here’s how it works:

• Repeat-Sales Index: FHFA tracks the same property across multiple transactions to measure price changes over time.
• Purchase Transactions: Use the sales price recorded in the mortgage data.
• Refinance Transactions: Use the appraised value reported at the time of refinance (if an appraisal was ordered). Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) are not used.
• Coverage: Only conforming conventional mortgages purchased or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are included.
• New Construction: A new home enters the dataset when financed with a conforming mortgage, but it only contributes to the repeat-sales index once a second transaction occurs (sale or refinance).

This methodology ensures consistency and reliability, but it also means the index can lag in capturing brand‑new construction markets.

A Shoutout to Appraisers

Appraisers play a critical role in the FHFA dataset. Every time a refinance transaction includes an appraisal, that value becomes part of the HPI’s foundation. In other words:

• Appraisal values anchor the index when no new sale price exists.
• Consistency in appraisal practice ensures the HPI remains credible and defensible.
• Local expertise matters: Appraisers’ ability to interpret market conditions, select comps, and apply adjustments directly influences the quality of the data feeding into national housing benchmarks.

Without appraisers, the FHFA’s “all‑transactions” index would be incomplete. Their work provides the bridge between raw market activity and standardized national reporting.

Appraisal Implications

Residential Valuations (1–4 Units):

• Within Oregon counties, the FHFA’s +0.16% quarterly change supports only minimal positive time adjustments in paired‑sales analysis.
• Of course, submarkets and particular neighborhoods may diverge from the broader trend. Appraisers must carefully define the competitive submarket for each property and measure market‑condition changes within that context.
• Flat medians and longer days on market suggest no broad market‑condition adjustments are warranted for most single‑family assignments, but localized dynamics can still justify nuanced treatment.

Cross‑Border and Portfolio Work:

• For assignments involving Clark or Skamania counties, or when lenders request regional context, the FHFA MSA index provides an authoritative benchmark.
• The modest +1.51% annual growth reinforces conservative expectations for refinance, purchase, and estate‑planning valuations across the full seven‑county footprint.

Why This Matters

Homeowners, lenders, realtors, estate planners, and attorneys benefit from seeing both perspectives:

• Oregon‑only trends (flat medians, longer marketing times)
• FHFA’s broader MSA view (slightly stronger due to Clark County)

Together, they provide a fuller picture of market stability and cross‑border dynamics in the Portland metro.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the FHFA House Price Index (HPI)?

The FHFA HPI is a repeat‑sales index that measures changes in single‑family home values using data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages. It tracks the same property across multiple transactions to calculate price changes over time.

Does the HPI measure home prices directly?

No. The HPI does not report the median or average home price in dollars. Instead, it measures the percentage change in value between two transactions of the same property.

• Example: If a home sold for $300,000 in 2015 and then $360,000 in 2025, the HPI records a 20% increase.
• The index is built entirely from these changes, not from raw price levels. This makes the HPI excellent for tracking market movement, while MLS data is better for reporting actual price levels.

How does the repeat‑sales methodology work?

• The index only includes properties with at least two transactions (purchase or refinance).
• It measures the change in value between those two points, not the absolute level of prices.
• This approach reduces noise from property differences and focuses on market movement.

What about new construction?

• A new construction sale enters the dataset when financed with a conforming conventional mortgage.
• However, it does not contribute to the repeat‑sales index until a subsequent transaction occurs (another sale or a refinance with an appraisal).
• In other words, the first sale is logged, but the property only becomes “active” in the index once there’s a second data point.

What are the implications of this approach?

• Coverage bias: The HPI does not immediately reflect brand‑new construction markets.
• Lag effect: It takes time for new construction to show up in the index, often when owners refinance or resell.
• Complementary data: FHFA also publishes purchase‑only indices (sales prices only) and expanded‑data indices (including FHA and county recorder data) to capture broader market activity.

Do refinances count in the FHFA HPI?

Yes. When a refinance includes an appraisal, the appraised value is used as the second transaction point. Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) are not used. This makes appraisers’ work central to the dataset.

Which counties are included in the Portland‑Vancouver‑Hillsboro MSA?

The FHFA defines the Portland MSA as seven counties:

• Oregon: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill
• Washington: Clark, Skamania

This differs from our six‑county Oregon‑only focus, which includes Hood River but excludes Clark and Skamania.

How does FHFA data differ from RMLS or local MLS data?

FHFA data is based on conforming conventional mortgage transactions purchased or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It provides a broad index of price changes, useful for regional benchmarking.

By contrast, RMLS (and other local MLS systems) reflect all listing and sales activity, regardless of financing type. This includes transactions financed with FHA, VA, jumbo loans, private financing, and even cash sales. RMLS also reports granular metrics such as median prices, days on market, and sales volume.

👉 In short: FHFA offers a standardized, mortgage‑based view of price movement, while RMLS captures the full spectrum of market activity, making it indispensable for appraisers and analysts who need transaction‑level detail.

Sources & Further Reading

• FHFA House Price Index Quarterly Report 2025Q3 (full report)
• FHA All Transactions Quarterly Tables (Q3 2025)

For current market context on inventory and pricing trends in the Portland region, see our Q3 2025 Market Update.

Thanks for reading—I hope you found a useful insight or an unexpected nugget along the way. If you enjoyed the post, please consider subscribing for future updates.

Question: Do you think Q4 2025 will be flat in Oregon, or will see some significant price movement?

CODA

Are you an agent in Portland and wonder why appraisers always do “x”?

A homeowner with questions about appraisal contingencies, comp selection, or reconsiderations of value?

If so, feel free to reach out—I enjoy connecting with market participants across Portland and the surrounding counties, and am always happy to help where I can.

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